Latest US Hog and Pig report meets analyst expectations, says AFBF

The US June Hog and Pig report contains few surprises according to analysis conducted by the American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF).
calendar icon 6 July 2021
clock icon 7 minute read

Moving on to the rest of the year, farrowing intentions are expected to decline at a greater rate than analysts anticipated. Analysts had anticipated both the June-to-August intentions to decline by 3.3%, with the actual intentions dropping by 4.4%, outside of the lower end of the expected range. September-to-November intentions were forecasted to decline by 1.2%, but instead, dropped 1.8%, to 3.084 million head, still within the expected range. When combining these lower intentions with the struggles in pigs per litter, we may be looking at reduced hog supplies and reduced slaughter levels as we move forward throughout the year.

Conclusion

The decline in inventory numbers indicated in last week’s Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report was largely in line with industry expectations, making for a neutral reading of the report. The report showed that on 1 June, all hogs and pigs were down to 75.653 million head, a decline of 2.2% from the same time last year. This decrease was the first year-over-year decline for June since 2014, when the industry was dealing with PEDv.

There was at least one or two surprises for analysts in this report. Analysts had forecasted an average increase in pigs per litter of 0.6%, but instead this report revealed a decline of 0.5%, the opposite direction of analyst expectations and at the very bottom of the range. Average pigs per litter fell from 11 pigs per litter at this time last year to 10.95 pigs per litter in 2021.

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