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Genesus Global Market Report: South-East Asia, August 2021

9 August 2021, at 3:44pm

Thailand

Covid-19 hits pig price

Pig price in Thailand plunged in July after a new outbreak of Delta-variant Covid-19 forced many pork plants to close. It is estimated that half of the large-scale meat plants in major cities such as Bangkok and peripheral areas are affected. Only a little over 5% of the population was fully vaccinated as of 25 July. A new lockdown in worse hit provinces also stalled demand for pork as dining in restaurants is banned and wet markets were ordered closed. The price fell 13% to THB 68/kg (USD 2.1) in July from the month before. It is the lowest price in 12 months.

Thailand used to ship over 8,000 heads of live pigs/day to Vietnam via Laos and Cambodia before Vietnam banned live pig imports from Thailand. This accounts for about 20% of the country’s total production, which now has nowhere to go.

Philippines

Pork Producers Weekly Liveweight Prices as of July 28, 2021
(NET Price PhP (Exchange Rate: 49.68PhP = 1USD)

Area

Market Hogs

Cull Sows

Bulacan

195-205

110-115

PhilPIG

212

142

Nueva Ecija

205

100

Pangasinan

200

120

Rizal

210

Laguna

205

130

Quezon

215-220

110

Bansud

170

100

Naga,Bicol

185-195

100

Cebu

140-155

80

Cavite

210-215

120

Batangas

220

Zamboanga

150

100

Agusan Sur

130

65

Pagadian

125-170

65

Ozamis

145-165

Davao

160-175

Marinduque

150

100

Metro-Vigan

170

130

Iloilo

140-140

80-85

Dumaguete

115-120

80

Koronadal

150

The average market price for market hogs further went down in the month of July 2021. As of this writing, the average July price was 171 PhP per kg (USD 3.44), while that of culled sows was somewhat steady at 99 PhP per kg (USD 2.00)
(source: PROPork weekly price monitoring).

May

June

July

Market Hogs (LW) PHP/kg

181

174

171

Culled sows PhP/kg

95

98

99

Key reasons for the downtrend:

  1. This is cyclical. Consumers at this time of the year have less disposable income. A huge portion of people’s money is spent on tuition fees. Though the school calendar changed, and students are doing school from home, tuition fees kept increasing each year.
  2. In the countryside, majority of traditional crops planted, like rice and corn, will be harvested in the months of September to November.
  3. People simply lessen their pork and poultry consumption at this time of the year. Consumers normally stock up on canned goods, additional dried food, and rice due to expected inclement weather (heavy rains due to tropical depressions).
  4. Excessive importation of pork and chicken (frozen)
  5. Furthermore, it is expected that pork prices will continue to drop as the government will be imposing stricter lockdowns this August due to the Covid Delta variant that is spreading fast all over the country.
  6. It is expected that the inflation rate for meat products will further go down in the next months due to the government’s intervention of importing pork and chicken to help augment supply and lower prices to consumers.

The ASF Situation


Since the Department of Agriculture (DA) confirmed the first outbreak in July 2019, ASF has been reported in Luzon, Mindanao, Leyte, and Samar Islands. As of July 4th, DA reported that ASF has spread to 12 regions, 50 provinces, 541 cities and municipalities, and 2,836 villages nationwide since it hit the country in 2019 resulted in the culling of 479,584 pigs.

Vietnam


The price of the live pig now is 54,000 – 56,000vnd/kg (USD 2.35 - 2.44) in the North; 53,000 – 56,000 vnd/kg (USD 2.31 – 2.44) in the center and 52,000 – 54,000 vnd/kg (USD 2.26 – 2.35) in the South. Average will be around 53,000vnd/kg (2.31USD/kg).

(source: https://vietnambiz.vn/)

The price has gone downhill because the supply chain is broken by Covid-19. The farmer cannot sell the pig, logistics is complicated, and most pork plants are closed. Even so, the supermarket pork price is very high and not hard to find.

Large feed companies such as CP, GREENFEED, De Heus, CJ Vina Agri, GUYOMARC'H - VN, Hoa Phat Dong Nai, Kyodo Sojitz... have simultaneously announced price increases for animal feed products.

According to a source from the Department of Animal Health, in the first 6 months of 2021, African swine fever has occurred in 1,152 in 225 districts of 45 provinces and cities. The total number of pigs culled is 62,188

(Source: http://nhachannuoi.vn/6-thang-dau-nam-2021-dich-ta-lon-chau-phi-xay-ra-o-45-tinh-tieu-huy-tren-62-000-con/).