Global exports are forecast to fall 2% to 10.5 million tons in 2023 as China imports weaken for a second consecutive year, according to the most recent USDA-FAS GAIN report. 

Despite persistent issues with ASF, Philippines pork imports are also forecast to decline due to the end of policies favoring imports in 2022; the temporary increase in pork quota volumes ended in May 2022 and reduced tariffs were extended through the end of 2022. 

UK pork imports rise as pre-pandemic consumption trends are expected to return, shifting purchases from retail to food service, shifting demand for domestically produced pork to imported pork.

US production is forecast 1% higher in 2023 to 12.4 million tons on gradually increasing pig crops and heavier weights. However, US exports are forecast lower in 2023 on easing demand by key importers such as Mexico and China.