Global production is forecast to rise 1% in 2023 to 111.0 million tons as production in China increases, according to the most recent USDA-FAS GAIN report. 

China pork production is expected to grow 2% as the sector continues to recover from the impacts of African swine fever (ASF). High feed costs in China are expected to reduce incentives to over-fatten hogs. The United States, Brazil, and Mexico are also forecast to expand production, more than offsetting declines by other major producers including the EU and the United Kingdom (UK). 

Rising feed, energy costs, and environmental restrictions will dampen EU production. Producers in the UK face high feed costs and weaker demand for domestic pork. 

Brazil and Mexico continue to expand their hog sectors to meet growing domestic demand, partly driven by consumers seeking alternatives to higher-priced beef, and stronger export demand in several key countries. 

Production in Vietnam continues to rebound as the management of ASF has protected the sector from large-scale outbreaks.