Market Trends

Brazil pork sector upbeat on exports, prices in 2026

Cepea sees higher shipments and firm margins for producers

26 January 2026

1 minute read

By: Melanie Epp

South America

After a strong performance in 2025, Brazil’s pork sector is expected to post another positive year in 2026, supported by rising exports, moderate production growth and firm prices, according to Cepea.

Cepea estimates pork exports at about 1.44 million tonnes in 2026, up 6.3% from the previous year. The increase would further strengthen Brazil’s position among the world’s leading pork exporters. Since 2023, Brazil has ranked third globally, based on USB Department of Agriculture data.

Analysts expect the opening and consolidation of new markets, along with growth in the total value of exports. The Philippines are projected to remain Brazil’s main destination, with purchases of Brazilian pork expected to rise 7% in 2026.

Exports to China, Brazil’s second-largest pork market, are expected to continue declining, reflecting weaker Chinese demand in recent years. From 2021, when China’s imports reached a record high, to partial data for 2025, Brazilian pork shipments to China fell by more than 70%.

In the Americas, Mexico is expected to keep expanding demand for Brazilian pork. Mexico is currently the world’s largest importer of the protein, and recent trade agreements between the two countries are aimed at increasing purchases of Brazilian pork.

In the domestic market, prices are expected to follow the trend seen in 2025 and remain at elevated levels, supported by firm demand. The Brazilian Animal Protein Association projects per capita pork consumption at 19.5 kilograms in 2026, up 2.5% from a year earlier.

To meet domestic and export demand, Cepea forecasts a 4% increase in pork production in 2026, to 5.88 million tonnes.

Cepea also expects another favourable year for producer profitability and purchasing power, driven by strong live hog prices. Corn and soybean meal prices may rise, particularly in the first half of the year, but large opening stocks and robust harvests are expected to limit cost increases.