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FAO Takes the Long View on World Pigmeat (Dec 07)

by 5m Editor
5 December 2007, at 12:00am

By Chris Harris, Senior Editor, ThePigSite. Our snapshot of the ongoing global pig industry trends as reported in December 2007 Whole Hog Brief. To read the full detailed analysis including all the commentary and graphical data, subscribe to the publication.

World Production to Rise

World pork production is forecast to rise to 129.32 million tonnes by 2016 according to the United Nations Food and Agricultural Organisation (FAO).

This represents a rise of 2.26 per cent in the decade from 2006.

According to a report in the Whole Hog, China is expected to continue to dominate global pork production, which is forecast to grow at 3.37 per cent to 2016.

The EU and the US will come in second and third place behind China as the world's leading producers with annual growth rates of 0.28 and 0.66 per cent respectively.

The FAO forecasts a strong rise in Canada of 1.65 per cent, but the largest increase will be from Brazil with is expected to grow production by 4.95 per cent.

The Whole Hog said that the forecasts cannot be certain as a significant disease outbreak in any of the major producers could throw all the figures out.

In the latest FAO global food Outlook Review, the food price index is shown to have risen by nine per cent in 2006 and the FAO figures forecast a fall in pig meat production of one per cent for 2007.

However, in the European Union, pig meat production is forecast to grow slightly.

The Whole Hog reports that pig meat output in Australia could also increase in the short term because of a reduction in inventories.

Forecast Pork Production Volumes and Annual Growth Rates to 2016

Pig Prices Fall

In the face of rising feed costs, the Whole Hog reports that the EU is introducing export refunds for fresh pig meat. The export refunds replace the storage aid that was introduced in October.

The Whole Hog's global price index shows that the world price for pigs fell by half a per cent in November.

Analysts in the US are expecting to see producers continue to lose money over the coming year through to 2009 and the Whole Hog reports the "not for the first time UK pig production is apparently on the verge of extinction."

The Whole Hog says that despite record breaking slaughterings in Germany, Spain, the Netherlands, Austria and France the produce price for pig meat in November improved slightly on October.

The recovery is being sustained by an increase in private storage and also good export prospects in Eastern Europe.

However, Canada's pig industry woes continue following a collapse in producer prices and a downturn in exports.

The Canadian Pork Council is asking the government to improve the Canadian Agricultural Stabilization Programme and for short term loans for producers.

US Exports Rise

US pork and pork variety meats exports reached 96,298 tonnes in September - a rise of 1.5 per cent on the previous month and 8.9 per cent higher than a year previously.

However, the Whole Hog says that for the first three quarters of the year US exports are 1.9 per cent down on the same period in the previous year.

Japanese imports rose in August by 11.3 per cent on July. Japan saw a large increase in imports from Denmark - up by 17.4 per cent on the previous month and 24.9 per cent higher that August 2006.

Imports from the US also rose by 8.8 per cent on July but they were down on the year before.

The Whole Hog reports that during September South Korea imported 22,120 tonnes of pork - 21.7 per cent down on the previous month and the lowest month since November 2005.US exports to South Korea were down by 20.1 per cent, Canada's down by 22.5 per cent and from Chile they were down by 9.7 per cent.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics shows that he Australian domestic market saw a rapid shift to imported meat. However it says that the good news for producers is that the monthly domestic slaughterings and pig meat production for August grew by 0.7 per cent.