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USDA Hogs and Pigs Report - March 2001 (updated 9th Apr.)

by 5m Editor
1 April 2001, at 12:00am

USDA Hogs and Pigs Report Information and Commentary for March 2001. Catch all the data plus what it all means as expressed the the various industry "commentators and news makers". Produced by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture.

Introduction

This document aims to pull together, in one place of reference, all the various information generated by the USDA Quarterly report. This document includes: USDA Quarterly report
What it all means Will be updated as commentary appears
Graphs, tables and statistical data from the report
For a PRINTABLE VERSION of the full report in PDF format Click Here

USDA MARCH 2000 REPORT

U.S. Hog Inventory Up 2 Percent

U.S. inventory of all hogs and pigs on March 1, 2001, was 58.8 million head. This was 2 percent above March 2000, but 1 percent below December 1, 2000.

Breeding inventory, at 6.24 million head, was up 1 percent from March 1, 2000, but down slightly from December 1, 2000. Market hog inventory, at 52.5 million head, was 2 percent above last year, but 1 percent below last quarter.

The December 2000-February 2001 U.S. pig crop, at 24.9 million head, was 2 percent more than 2000, but 1 percent less than 1999. Sows farrowing during this period totalled 2.84 million head, 1 percent above last year. The sows farrowed during this quarter represented 45 percent of the breeding herd. The average pigs per litter was 8.78 pigs saved per litter for the December 2000-February 2001 period, compared to 8.76 pigs last year. Pigs saved per litter by size of operation ranged from 7.50 for operations with 1-99 hogs to 8.90 for operations with more than 5,000 hogs and pigs.



U.S. hog producers intend to have 2.91 million sows farrow during the March-May 2001 quarter, 1 percent above the actual farrowings during the same period in 2000, but 3 percent below 1999. Intended farrowings for June-August, at 2.92 million sows, are 1 percent above the same period in 2000, but slightly below 1999.

The total number of hogs under contract, owned by operations with over 5,000 head, but raised by contractees, accounted for 32 percent of the total U.S. hog inventory, up from 31 percent last year.

Revisions

All inventory and pig crop estimates for March 1999 through December 2000 were reviewed using final pig crop, official slaughter, death loss, import, and export data in U.S. level balance sheets. Based on the findings of this review, small adjustments of less than one percent were made to the inventory level for September 1, 2000 and December 1, 2000. Small adjustments of less than one half percent were made to the March-May 2000 pig crop, less than one percent to the June-August 2000 pig crop, and slightly over one percent to the September-November 2000 pig crop.

WHAT IT ALL MEANS?

What the commentators and industry thinkers read into this data (note most of these articles are also accessible individually in the news section):

US Hog Slaughter To Increase During Spring 2001 (thePigSite.com.com)
K-State Hog Outlook by James Mintert - Slaughter is expected to shift gears this spring and move above the previous year's level. Weights are also expected to remain above a year ago which means pork production will rise 2.5 to 3%.

US Hog and Swine Outlook, 6th April 2001 (thePigSite.com)
Weekly review of the US hog industry, written by Glen Grimes and Ron Plain. Looking at the USDA report and what it all means.

Hogs and Pigs Report Commentary - Grimes and Plain. (thePigSite.com)
Quarterly review of the US hog industry looking at the data in the USDA Hogs and Pigs report, written by Glen Grimes and Ron Plain.

USDA Hog Inventory Report Contains Good News (AgWeb.com)
The June, July, August and December lean hog futures contracts on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange all closed up the limit today. The reason for the sudden optimism was, of course, last Friday's USDA hog inventory report. It contained quite a bit of good news for hog producers.

NOTE: As and when new commentary is written we will add the links here.

GRAPHS, TABLES AND STATISTICS FROM THE REPORT



 Hogs and Pigs: Inventory Number by Class, Weight Group,
 and Quarter, United States, 1999-2001 1/
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 : : : :2001 as % of
 Item : 1999 : 2000 : 2001 :-------------
 : : : : 1999 : 2000
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 : ----------- 1,000 Head ----------- Percent
 :
March 1 Inventory :
 All Hogs and Pigs : 60,191 57,782 58,754 98 102
 Kept for Breeding : 6,527 6,190 6,244 96 101
 Market : 53,663 51,593 52,510 98 102
 :
 Market Hogs and Pigs :
 by Weight Groups :
 Under 60 Pounds : 19,978 19,217 19,594 98 102
 60-119 Pounds : 12,899 12,409 12,704 98 102
 120-179 Pounds : 10,995 10,552 10,808 98 102
 180 Pounds and Over : 9,792 9,414 9,405 96 100
 :
June 1 Inventory :
 All Hogs and Pigs : 60,896 59,137
 Kept for Breeding : 6,515 6,234
 Market : 54,380 52,904
 :
 Market Hogs and Pigs :
 by Weight Groups :
 Under 60 Pounds : 20,532 19,907
 60-119 Pounds : 13,501 13,247
 120-179 Pounds : 11,076 10,720
 180 Pounds and Over : 9,272 9,029
 :
September 1 Inventory :
 All Hogs and Pigs : 60,776 59,545
 Kept for Breeding : 6,301 6,246
 Market : 54,474 53,300
 :
 Market Hogs and Pigs :
 by Weight Groups :
 Under 60 Pounds : 20,243 19,965
 60-119 Pounds : 13,414 13,070
 120-179 Pounds : 11,129 10,832
 180 Pounds and Over : 9,689 9,432
 :
December 1 Inventory :
 All Hogs and Pigs : 59,342 59,338
 Kept for Breeding : 6,234 6,270
 Market : 53,109 53,068
 :
 Market Hogs and Pigs :
 by Weight Groups :
 Under 60 Pounds : 19,241 19,431
 60-119 Pounds : 13,107 13,048
 120-179 Pounds : 11,073 10,916
 180 Pounds and Over : 9,687 9,674
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/ May not add due to rounding.
 
 
 Farrowings: Number of Sows, Pig Crop and Pigs Per Litter,
 United States, 1999-2001 1/
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 : : : : 2001 as % of
 Item : 1999 : 2000 : 2001 :---------------
 : : : : 1999 : 2000
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 : ------------ 1,000 Head ------------ Percent
 :
Sows Farrowing :
 Dec-Feb 2/ : 2,891 2,798 2,836 98 101
 Mar-May 3/ : 2,986 2,885 2,907 97 101
 Dec-May 2/ 4/ : 5,877 5,683 5,743 98 101
 :
 Jun-Aug 3/ : 2,920 2,889 2,917 100 101
 Sep-Nov : 2,844 2,848
 Jun-Nov : 5,764 5,737
 :
Pig Crop :
 Dec-Feb 2/ : 25,247 24,522 24,896 99 102
 Mar-May : 26,272 25,565
 Dec-May 2/ : 51,519 50,087
 :
 Jun-Aug : 25,862 25,548
 Sep-Nov : 24,973 25,208
 Jun-Nov : 50,835 50,756
 :
 : ------------- Number ------------- Percent
Pigs per Litter :
 Dec-Feb 2/ : 8.73 8.76 8.78 101 100
 Mar-May : 8.80 8.86
 Dec-May 2/ : 8.77 8.81
 :
 Jun-Aug : 8.86 8.84
 Sep-Nov : 8.78 8.85
 Jun-Nov : 8.82 8.85
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/ May not add due to rounding.
2/ December preceding year.
3/ Intentions for 2001.
4/ Actual farrowings for December-February 2001 plus intentions for
 March-May 2001.
 
 
 
 
 Pigs per Litter: By Size of Operation, United States, 2000-2001
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 : Pigs per Litter on Operations Having
 :-----------------------------------------------------------------
 Pig Crop : 1-99 : 100-499 : 500-999 :1,000-1,999:2,000-4,999: 5,000+
 : Head : Head : Head : Head : Head : Head
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 : Number
 :
2000 :
Dec-Feb 1/ : 7.50 7.90 8.20 8.50 8.70 8.90
Mar-May : 7.80 7.90 8.30 8.60 8.80 9.00
Jun-Aug : 7.40 7.90 8.30 8.60 8.80 9.00
Sep-Nov : 7.60 8.10 8.40 8.70 8.80 9.00
 :
2001 :
Dec-Feb 1/ : 7.50 7.80 8.20 8.50 8.70 8.90
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/ December preceding year.
 
 
 Monthly Farrowings: Number of Sows, Pigs per Litter, and Pig Crop,
 United States December-November 2000-2001 1/ 2/
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 : Sows Farrowing : Pigs per Litter : Pig Crop
 Month :-----------------------------------------------------------------------
 : 2000 : 2001 : 2000 : 2001 : 2000 : 2001
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 : --- 1,000 Head -- ---- Number ---- --- 1,000 Head ---
 :
Dec 1/ : 922 934 8.77 8.74 8,091 8,163
Jan : 911 946 8.76 8.77 7,977 8,301
Feb : 965 956 8.76 8.82 8,454 8,432
Mar : 974 8.87 8,639
Apr : 956 8.85 8,461
May : 955 8.86 8,465
Jun : 960 8.83 8,479
Jul : 970 8.85 8,580
Aug : 959 8.85 8,489
Sep : 979 8.84 8,654
Oct : 947 8.85 8,382
Nov : 922 8.86 8,172
 :
Total : 11,420 8.83 100,843
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/ December preceding year.
2/ Monthly values may not add to quarterly or annual totals due to
 rounding.
 
 
 
 
 Monthly Sows and Gilts: Inventory and Number Bred,
 United States December-November 2000-2001 1/ 2/
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 : Inventory 1st of Month : Bred during Month
 :-----------------------------------:-----------------------------------
 : : 2001 : : 2001
 Month : :-----------------------: :-----------------------
 : 2000 : : as % of : 2000 : : as % of
 : : Number : 2000 : : Number : 2000
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 : --- 1,000 Head -- Percent --- 1,000 Head -- Percent
 :
Dec 2/ : 6,090 1,185
Jan : 6,030 1,169
Feb : 6,031 1,142
Mar : 6,065
Apr :
May :
Jun :
Jul :
Aug :
Sep : 1,234
Oct : 6,072 1,183
Nov : 6,055 1,168
 :
Total :
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/ Data series beginning October 2000.
2/ December preceding year.

Hogs and Pigs: Breeding, Market, and Total Inventory by State and United States, March 1, 2000-2001 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Breeding : Market : Total :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 2001 : : 2001 : : 2001 State : :---------------: :---------------: :--------------- : 2000 : :as % of: 2000 : :as % of: 2000 : :as % of : :Number : 2000 : :Number : 2000 : :Number : 2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head Percent 1,000 Head Percent 1,000 Head Percent : AR : 110 105 95 580 555 96 690 660 96 CO : 205 180 88 645 590 91 850 770 91 IL : 430 440 102 3,620 3,660 101 4,050 4,100 101 IN : 350 360 103 2,800 2,890 103 3,150 3,250 103 IA : 1,160 1,120 97 13,640 13,680 100 14,800 14,800 100 KS : 145 160 110 1,255 1,390 111 1,400 1,550 111 MI : 120 120 100 840 780 93 960 900 94 MN : 570 600 105 4,830 5,300 110 5,400 5,900 109 MO : 380 380 100 2,620 2,570 98 3,000 2,950 98 NE : 380 360 95 2,620 2,590 99 3,000 2,950 98 NC : 1,000 1,000 100 8,400 8,500 101 9,400 9,500 101 OH : 160 165 103 1,270 1,285 101 1,430 1,450 101 OK : 310 340 110 1,880 1,920 102 2,190 2,260 103 PA : 120 120 100 870 920 106 990 1,040 105 SD : 125 135 108 1,105 1,165 105 1,230 1,300 106 TX : 80 90 113 780 820 105 860 910 106 WI : 65 80 123 505 520 103 570 600 105 : Oth : Sts 2/ : 480 489 102 3,333 3,375 101 3,812 3,864 101 : US : 6,190 6,244 101 51,593 52,510 102 57,782 58,754 102 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ May not add due to rounding. 2/ Individual State estimates not available for the 33 other States.
Market Hogs and Pigs: Inventory Number by Weight Group, State, and United States, March 1, 2000-2001 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Under : 60-119 : 120-179 : 180 Lbs. : 60 Lbs. : Lbs. : Lbs. : and Over State :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2000 : 2001 : 2000 : 2001 : 2000 : 2001 : 2000 : 2001 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head : AR : 220 200 135 135 125 120 100 100 CO : 370 325 90 70 90 85 95 110 IL : 1,260 1,310 880 890 820 820 660 640 IN : 1,100 1,100 650 670 550 560 500 560 IA : 4,310 4,280 3,590 3,760 2,970 3,050 2,770 2,590 KS : 510 480 245 295 230 245 270 370 MI : 295 310 215 180 170 160 160 130 MN : 1,910 2,130 1,150 1,300 960 1,080 810 790 MO : 1,140 1,140 680 600 510 510 290 320 NE : 1,030 1,020 630 650 550 520 410 400 NC : 3,400 3,500 1,950 1,850 1,650 1,700 1,400 1,450 OH : 535 540 290 305 270 280 175 160 OK : 840 850 300 320 250 260 490 490 PA : 325 335 225 240 180 190 140 155 SD : 370 400 280 320 250 245 205 200 TX : 245 270 165 170 170 160 200 220 WI : 195 200 110 110 100 110 100 100 : Oth : Sts 2/ : 1,162 1,204 824 839 707 713 639 620 : US : 19,217 19,594 12,409 12,704 10,552 10,808 9,414 9,405 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Weight groups may not add to Market due to rounding. 2/ Individual State estimates not available for the 33 other States. Hogs and Pigs: Breeding, Market, and Total Inventory by State and United States, June 1, 1999-2000 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Breeding : Market : Total :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 2000 : : 2000 : : 2000 State : :---------------: :---------------: :--------------- : 1999 : :as % of: 1999 : :as % of: 1999 : :as % of : :Number : 1999 : :Number : 1999 : :Number : 1999 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head Percent 1,000 Head Percent 1,000 Head Percent : AR : 110 110 100 615 580 94 725 690 95 CO : 200 210 105 700 680 97 900 890 99 IL : 460 430 93 3,890 3,720 96 4,350 4,150 95 IN : 410 350 85 3,190 2,900 91 3,600 3,250 90 IA : 1,200 1,160 97 14,300 14,240 100 15,500 15,400 99 KS : 160 150 94 1,360 1,240 91 1,520 1,390 91 MI : 120 110 92 980 880 90 1,100 990 90 MN : 600 580 97 5,000 5,120 102 5,600 5,700 102 MO : 410 380 93 2,790 2,620 94 3,200 3,000 94 NE : 410 370 90 2,790 2,530 91 3,200 2,900 91 NC : 1,000 1,000 100 8,500 8,600 101 9,500 9,600 101 OH : 200 160 80 1,450 1,240 86 1,650 1,400 85 OK : 310 340 110 1,870 1,950 104 2,180 2,290 105 PA : 125 125 100 965 925 96 1,090 1,050 96 SD : 130 125 96 1,200 1,105 92 1,330 1,230 92 TX : 85 85 100 685 785 115 770 870 113 WI : 80 65 81 580 515 89 660 580 88 : Oth : Sts 2/ : 505 484 96 3,515 3,274 93 4,021 3,757 93 : US : 6,515 6,234 96 54,380 52,904 97 60,896 59,137 97 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ May not add due to rounding. 2/ Individual State estimates not available for the 33 other States.
Market Hogs and Pigs: Inventory Number by Weight Group, State, and United States, June 1, 1999-2000 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Under : 60-119 : 120-179 : 180 Lbs. : 60 Lbs. : Lbs. : Lbs. : and Over State :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1999 : 2000 : 1999 : 2000 : 1999 : 2000 : 1999 : 2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head : AR : 220 210 150 135 135 130 110 105 CO : 360 390 115 90 115 90 110 110 IL : 1,460 1,360 950 920 840 820 640 620 IN : 1,230 1,140 810 670 650 570 500 520 IA : 4,550 4,480 3,950 4,060 3,050 3,080 2,750 2,620 KS : 555 500 290 245 255 235 260 260 MI : 430 390 220 200 200 160 130 130 MN : 2,000 2,060 1,200 1,250 980 1,020 820 790 MO : 1,240 1,150 730 660 520 510 300 300 NE : 1,130 1,010 720 640 540 500 400 380 NC : 3,400 3,500 2,000 2,000 1,750 1,700 1,350 1,400 OH : 590 520 375 290 305 270 180 160 OK : 790 840 360 400 270 240 450 470 PA : 360 340 250 250 195 195 160 140 SD : 430 390 280 310 270 240 220 165 TX : 250 230 135 200 140 160 160 195 WI : 215 195 130 120 130 110 105 90 : Oth : Sts 2/ : 1,322 1,202 836 807 731 690 627 574 : US : 20,532 19,907 13,501 13,247 11,076 10,720 9,272 9,029 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Weight groups may not add to Market due to rounding. 2/ Individual State estimates not available for the 33 other States. Hogs and Pigs: Breeding, Market, and Total Inventory by State and United States, September 1, 1999-2000 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Breeding : Market : Total :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 2000 : : 2000 : : 2000 State : :---------------: :---------------: :--------------- : 1999 : :as % of: 1999 : :as % of: 1999 : :as % of : :Number : 1999 : :Number : 1999 : :Number : 1999 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head Percent 1,000 Head Percent 1,000 Head Percent : AR : 110 105 95 610 575 94 720 680 94 CO : 200 205 103 750 685 91 950 890 94 IL : 430 420 98 3,770 3,630 96 4,200 4,050 96 IN : 400 360 90 3,150 2,940 93 3,550 3,300 93 IA : 1,150 1,160 101 14,450 14,140 98 15,600 15,300 98 KS : 155 155 100 1,325 1,405 106 1,480 1,560 105 MI : 110 110 100 920 910 99 1,030 1,020 99 MN : 590 580 98 4,910 5,020 102 5,500 5,600 102 MO : 390 380 97 2,710 2,620 97 3,100 3,000 97 NE : 360 380 106 2,590 2,620 101 2,950 3,000 102 NC : 1,000 1,000 100 8,900 8,700 98 9,900 9,700 98 OH : 190 160 84 1,400 1,260 90 1,590 1,420 89 OK : 330 340 103 2,000 2,010 101 2,330 2,350 101 PA : 115 115 100 935 925 99 1,050 1,040 99 SD : 125 130 104 1,245 1,150 92 1,370 1,280 93 TX : 80 85 106 740 845 114 820 930 113 WI : 75 65 87 525 525 100 600 590 98 : Oth : Sts 2/ : 491 496 101 3,544 3,340 94 4,036 3,835 95 : US : 6,301 6,246 99 54,474 53,300 98 60,776 59,545 98 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ May not add due to rounding. 2/ Individual State estimates not available for the 33 other States.
Market Hogs and Pigs: Inventory Number by Weight Group, State, and United States, September 1, 1999-2000 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Under : 60-119 : 120-179 : 180 Lbs. : 60 Lbs. : Lbs. : Lbs. : and Over State :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1999 : 2000 : 1999 : 2000 : 1999 : 2000 : 1999 : 2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head : AR : 225 220 140 135 135 120 110 100 CO : 405 400 125 80 110 80 110 125 IL : 1,390 1,260 930 900 820 820 630 650 IN : 1,240 1,130 760 710 620 570 530 530 IA : 4,660 4,420 3,940 3,900 3,100 3,140 2,750 2,680 KS : 555 545 260 290 230 265 280 305 MI : 310 360 260 230 190 180 160 140 MN : 1,960 2,080 1,180 1,220 970 950 800 770 MO : 1,110 1,120 720 690 530 520 350 290 NE : 1,070 1,100 600 650 520 490 400 380 NC : 3,400 3,450 2,100 2,000 1,850 1,750 1,550 1,500 OH : 580 550 350 285 290 255 180 170 OK : 830 930 370 330 300 250 500 500 PA : 330 345 240 240 200 190 165 150 SD : 415 420 320 290 285 255 225 185 TX : 270 240 155 175 130 180 185 250 WI : 215 195 115 120 100 110 95 100 : Oth : Sts 2/ : 1,278 1,200 849 825 749 707 669 607 : US : 20,243 19,965 13,414 13,070 11,129 10,832 9,689 9,432 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Weight groups may not add to Market due to rounding. 2/ Individual State estimates not available for the 33 other States. Hogs and Pigs: Breeding, Market, and Total Inventory by State and United States, December 1, 1999-2000 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Breeding : Market : Total :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : : 2000 : : 2000 : : 2000 State : :---------------: :---------------: :--------------- : 1999 : :as % of: 1999 : :as % of: 1999 : :as % of : :Number : 1999 : :Number : 1999 : :Number : 1999 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head Percent 1,000 Head Percent 1,000 Head Percent : AR : 110 110 100 600 575 96 710 685 96 CO : 210 190 90 700 650 93 910 840 92 IL : 420 450 107 3,630 3,700 102 4,050 4,150 102 IN : 370 375 101 2,880 2,975 103 3,250 3,350 103 IA : 1,160 1,120 97 14,240 14,080 99 15,400 15,200 99 KS : 150 160 107 1,310 1,400 107 1,460 1,560 107 MI : 120 110 92 860 840 98 980 950 97 MN : 560 600 107 4,940 5,200 105 5,500 5,800 105 MO : 410 380 93 2,740 2,520 92 3,150 2,900 92 NE : 380 360 95 2,620 2,690 103 3,000 3,050 102 NC : 1,000 1,000 100 8,500 8,300 98 9,500 9,300 98 OH : 170 170 100 1,310 1,330 102 1,480 1,500 101 OK : 310 340 110 1,950 2,000 103 2,260 2,340 104 PA : 120 120 100 930 910 98 1,050 1,030 98 SD : 120 140 117 1,140 1,190 104 1,260 1,330 106 TX : 80 85 106 790 835 106 870 920 106 WI : 65 75 115 505 545 108 570 620 109 : Oth : Sts 2/ : 479 485 101 3,464 3,328 96 3,942 3,813 97 : US : 6,234 6,270 101 53,109 53,068 100 59,342 59,338 100 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ May not add due to rounding. 2/ Individual State estimates not available for the 33 other States.
Market Hogs and Pigs: Inventory Number by Weight Group, State, and United States, December 1, 1999-2000 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Under : 60-119 : 120-179 : 180 Lbs. : 60 Lbs. : Lbs. : Lbs. : and Over State :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1999 : 2000 : 1999 : 2000 : 1999 : 2000 : 1999 : 2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head : AR : 210 210 140 135 140 125 110 105 CO : 350 370 115 80 110 85 125 115 IL : 1,270 1,310 900 920 800 810 660 660 IN : 1,090 1,110 740 725 580 590 470 550 IA : 4,360 4,360 3,770 3,860 3,210 3,120 2,900 2,740 KS : 520 495 310 305 230 230 250 370 MI : 330 320 205 200 170 170 155 150 MN : 1,940 2,110 1,190 1,270 1,030 1,040 780 780 MO : 1,140 1,010 770 680 520 510 310 320 NE : 990 1,010 650 700 550 550 430 430 NC : 3,350 3,400 1,950 1,800 1,750 1,650 1,450 1,450 OH : 530 550 320 320 285 280 175 180 OK : 820 880 310 370 270 260 550 490 PA : 330 330 250 235 195 190 155 155 SD : 370 430 290 290 270 265 210 205 TX : 280 215 190 175 160 200 160 245 WI : 165 190 135 135 105 110 100 110 : Oth : Sts 2/ : 1,196 1,131 872 848 698 731 697 619 : US : 19,241 19,431 13,107 13,048 11,073 10,916 9,687 9,674 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Weight groups may not add to Market due to rounding. 2/ Individual State estimates not available for the 33 other States. Farrowings: Number of Sows, Pigs per Litter, and Pig Crop by State and United States, December-February 2000-2001 1/ 2/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Sows Farrowing : : Pig Crop 3/ :--------------------------: Pigs :-------------------------- : : 2001 : per Litter : : 2001 State : :-----------------------------------: :----------------- : 2000 : :as % of : : : 2000 : :as % of : : Number : 2000 : 2000 : 2001 : : Number : 2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head Percent --- Number -- 1,000 Head Percent : AR : 56 54 96 8.55 9.00 479 486 101 CO : 86 77 90 8.50 8.50 731 655 90 IL : 205 205 100 8.70 8.60 1,784 1,763 99 IN : 145 160 110 8.70 8.85 1,262 1,416 112 IA : 455 450 99 8.85 8.50 4,027 3,825 95 KS : 74 74 100 8.70 8.60 644 636 99 MI : 44 47 107 8.80 8.90 387 418 108 MN : 245 265 108 8.80 8.95 2,156 2,372 110 MO : 175 175 100 8.85 8.80 1,549 1,540 99 NE : 160 145 91 8.75 8.85 1,400 1,283 92 NC : 530 540 102 8.75 8.90 4,638 4,806 104 OH : 75 77 103 8.70 8.50 653 655 100 OK : 165 170 103 8.85 9.35 1,460 1,590 109 PA : 46 51 111 8.70 8.90 400 454 114 SD : 58 64 110 8.90 8.90 516 570 110 TX : 36 38 106 9.50 9.00 342 342 100 WI : 31 35 113 8.75 8.30 271 291 107 : Oth : Sts 4/ : 212 209 99 8.60 8.60 1,823 1,794 98 : US : 2,798 2,836 101 8.76 8.78 24,522 24,896 102 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ May not add due to rounding. 2/ December preceding year. 3/ Number of pigs born December-February on hand March 1, or had been sold. 4/ Individual State estimates not available for the 33 States. Farrowings: Number of Sows, Pigs per Litter, and Pig Crop by State and United States, March-May 1999-2001 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Sows Farrowing : : Pig Crop 2/ :-------------------------------: Pigs :----------------------- : : : 2001 3/ : per Litter : : 2000 State : : :-------------------------------: :--------------- : 1999 : 2000 : :as % of: : : 1999 : :as % of : : :Number : 2000 : 1999 : 2000 : :Number : 1999 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ----- 1,000 Head ---- Percent -- Number -- ----- 1,000 Head ---- : AR : 55 55 54 98 8.50 8.50 468 468 100 CO : 79 88 79 90 8.50 8.40 672 739 110 IL : 210 210 210 100 8.65 8.75 1,817 1,838 101 IN : 175 145 160 110 8.70 8.85 1,523 1,283 84 IA : 520 490 470 96 8.70 8.90 4,524 4,361 96 KS : 85 76 74 97 9.10 8.90 774 676 87 MI : 55 50 54 108 8.90 9.00 490 450 92 MN : 265 260 275 106 8.95 9.00 2,372 2,340 99 MO : 195 180 180 100 8.80 8.80 1,716 1,584 92 NE : 165 155 155 100 8.60 8.85 1,419 1,372 97 NC : 530 540 540 100 8.90 8.90 4,717 4,806 102 OH : 85 75 79 105 8.80 8.90 748 668 89 OK : 160 165 170 103 9.10 8.90 1,456 1,469 101 PA : 47 48 53 110 8.80 8.80 414 422 102 SD : 60 62 66 106 8.90 8.90 534 552 103 TX : 37 37 44 119 9.50 9.50 352 352 100 WI : 36 30 36 120 8.50 8.85 306 266 87 : Oth : Sts 4/ : 227 219 208 95 8.69 8.77 1,970 1,919 97 : US : 2,986 2,885 2,907 101 8.80 8.86 26,272 25,565 97 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ May not add due to rounding. 2/ Number of pigs born March-May that were still on hand June 1, or had been sold. 3/ Intentions. 4/ Individual State estimates not available for the 33 other States. Farrowings: Number of Sows, Pigs per Litter, and Pig Crop by State and United States, June-August 1999-2001 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Sows Farrowing : : Pig Crop 2/ :-------------------------------: Pigs :----------------------- : : : 2001 3/ : per Litter : : 2000 State : : :-------------------------------: :--------------- : 1999 : 2000 : :as % of: : : 1999 : :as % of : : :Number : 2000 : 1999 : 2000 : :Number : 1999 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ----- 1,000 Head ---- Percent -- Number -- 1,000 Head Percent : AR : 57 55 51 93 8.50 9.25 485 509 105 CO : 93 90 77 86 8.60 8.40 800 756 95 IL : 200 200 210 105 8.60 8.70 1,720 1,740 101 IN : 170 155 165 106 8.75 8.75 1,488 1,356 91 IA : 490 470 470 100 9.00 8.80 4,410 4,136 94 KS : 82 84 74 88 8.80 8.80 722 739 102 MI : 51 50 50 100 9.00 8.90 459 445 97 MN : 265 260 275 106 9.00 9.10 2,385 2,366 99 MO : 180 180 180 100 8.80 8.80 1,584 1,584 100 NE : 150 160 155 97 8.65 9.00 1,298 1,440 111 NC : 540 540 550 102 9.00 8.80 4,860 4,752 98 OH : 85 75 79 105 8.70 8.85 740 664 90 OK : 165 170 175 103 9.00 8.90 1,485 1,513 102 PA : 44 49 53 108 8.90 8.70 392 426 109 SD : 55 62 65 105 9.00 9.00 495 558 113 TX : 39 43 44 102 8.90 9.40 347 404 116 WI : 34 30 35 117 8.60 8.90 292 267 91 : Oth : Sts 4/ : 220 216 209 97 8.65 8.76 1,900 1,893 100 : US : 2,920 2,889 2,917 101 8.86 8.84 25,862 25,548 99 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ May not add due to rounding. 2/ Number of pigs born June-August on hand September 1, or had been sold. 3/ Intentions. 4/ Individual State estimates not available for the 33 States. Farrowings: Number of Sows, Pigs per Litter, and Pig Crop by State and United States, September-November 1999-2000 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Sows Farrowing : : Pig Crop 2/ :--------------------------: Pigs :-------------------------- : : 2000 : per Litter : : 2000 State : :-----------------------------------: :----------------- : 1999 : :as % of : : : 1999 : :as % of : : Number : 1999 : 1999 : 2000 : : Number : 1999 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 Head Percent --- Number -- 1,000 Head Percent : AR : 55 55 100 8.50 9.00 468 495 106 CO : 87 86 99 8.30 8.50 722 731 101 IL : 200 210 105 8.60 8.70 1,720 1,827 106 IN : 155 165 106 8.65 8.90 1,341 1,469 110 IA : 490 450 92 8.90 8.85 4,361 3,983 91 KS : 78 81 104 8.70 8.60 679 697 103 MI : 49 48 98 9.00 9.05 441 434 98 MN : 245 270 110 9.00 8.90 2,205 2,403 109 MO : 190 175 92 8.70 8.75 1,653 1,531 93 NE : 160 150 94 8.75 8.75 1,400 1,313 94 NC : 520 530 102 8.75 8.85 4,550 4,691 103 OH : 74 74 100 8.70 8.80 644 651 101 OK : 155 165 106 9.00 9.35 1,395 1,543 111 PA : 46 51 111 8.70 8.70 400 444 111 SD : 57 65 114 8.90 8.90 507 579 114 TX : 38 38 100 9.40 9.40 357 357 100 WI : 31 33 106 8.70 8.55 270 282 104 : Oth : Sts 3/ : 214 202 94 8.68 8.82 1,860 1,778 96 : US : 2,844 2,848 100 8.78 8.85 24,973 25,208 101 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ May not add due to rounding. 2/ Number of pigs born September-November that were still on hand December 1 or had been sold. 3/ Individual State estimates not available for the 33 other States.

Reliability of March 1 Hogs and Pigs Estimates

Survey Procedures: A random sample of 12,900 U.S. producers was surveyed to provide data for these estimates. Survey procedures ensured that all hog and pig producers, regardless of size, had a chance to be included in the survey. Large producers were sampled more heavily than small operations. Data were collected from about 10,800 operations, 84 percent of the total sample, during the first-half of March by mail, telephone, and face-to-face personal interviews. Regardless of when operations responded, they were asked to report inventories as of March 1.

Estimation Procedures: These hogs and pigs estimates were prepared by the Agricultural Statistics Board after reviewing recommendations and analysis submitted by each State office. National and State survey data were reviewed for reasonableness with each other and with estimates from past years using a balance sheet. The balance sheet begins with the previous inventory estimate, adds to it estimates of births and imports, and subtracts estimates of slaughter, exports, and deaths. This indicated ending inventory level is compared to the Agricultural Statistics Board estimate for reasonableness.

Revision Policy: Revisions to previous estimates are made to improve quarter to quarter relationships. Estimates for the previous four quarters are subject to revision when current estimates are made. In December, estimates for all quarters of the current and previous year are reviewed. The reviews are primarily based on hog check-off receipts and slaughter. Estimates will also be reviewed after data from the Department of Agriculture five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions will be made after that date.

Reliability: Since all operations raising hogs are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplication, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The affects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness.

To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the following table. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the difference between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for hog inventory estimates over the past 20 quarters is 1.7 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 58.8 million head by more than 1.7 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 2.9 percent.
 Reliability of March 1 Hog Estimates 1/
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 : : : Difference Between : Quarters
 : Root : 90% : First and Latest :---------------
 : Mean : Confidence : Estimates : First : First
 Item :Square : Level :-------------------------: Above : Below
 : Error : :Average:Smallest:Largest :Latest :Latest
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 : Percent ---------- 1,000 Head --------- Number
 :
All Hogs & : 1.7 2.9 1,704 653 40 2,820 11 9
 Pigs :
 :
Pig Crop : 1.5 2.6 647 279 3 1,009 12 8
 :
Expected :
 Farrowings :
 :
Next : 2.3 4.0 116 46 1 161 11 9
 Quarter :
 :
Following : 4.7 8.1 236 94 10 380 10 10
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1/ Based on quarterly records for the past 20 quarters.