Introduction

This document aims to pull together, in one place of reference, all the various information generated by the USDA Quarterly report. This document includes:

USDA Quarterly Report: December 2007 What It All Means - Expert Commentary In The News - What The Media Says Graph Data From The Report Hog Inventories by State (external link - select State and navigate to file)

For a PRINTABLE VERSION of the full 24 page report in PDF format, including all the tabular data which is not shown in this article, Click Here

US Quarterly Pigs and Hogs Inventory: December 2007

U.S. inventory of all hogs and pigs on December 1, 2007 was 65.1 million head. This was up 4 percent from December 1, 2006, but down 1 percent from September 1, 2007.

Breeding inventory, at 6.16 million head, was up 1 percent from last year, and up slightly from the previous quarter.

Market hog inventory, at 59.0 million head, was up 5 percent from last year, but down 1 percent from last quarter.

The September-November 2007 pig crop, at 28.0 million head, was up 4 percent from 2006 and up 7 percent from 2005. Sows farrowing during this period totaled 3.03 million head, up 3 percent from 2006 and up 4 percent from 2005. The sows farrowed during this quarter represented 49 percent of the breeding herd. The average pigs saved per litter was 9.24 for the September-November 2007 period, compared to 9.11 last year. Pigs saved per litter by size of operation ranged from 7.40 for operations with 1-99 hogs and pigs to 9.30 for operations with more than 5,000 hogs and pigs.

U.S. hog producers intend to have 2.98 million sows farrow during the December 2007-February 2008 quarter, up 2 percent from the actual farrowings during the same period in 2007, and up 5 percent from 2006. Intended farrowings for March-May 2008, at 3.04 million sows, are up slightly from 2007 and up 4 percent from 2006.

The total number of hogs under contract owned by operations with over 5,000 head, but raised by contractees, accounted for 39 percent of the total U.S. hog inventory, up from 38 percent last year.

Revisions

All inventory and pig crop estimates for March 2006 through September 2007 were reviewed using final pig crop, official slaughter, death loss, and updated import and export data. Based on the findings of this review, adjustments of less than two percent were made to the June 2007 and September 2007 total inventory. An adjustment of less than three percent was made to the March-May 2007 pig crop while an adjustment of slightly more than one-half of one percent was made to the June-August 2007 pig crop.

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What It All Means - Expert Commentary

What the commentators and industry thinkers read into this data:

Ron Plain and Glenn Grimes Grimes & Plain on the Hogs and Pigs Report USDA's December Hogs and Pigs inventory report was a little more bearish than the average of the trade estimates. It showed the total herd up 4.2% (Table 1) while the trade estimates averaged a 3.4% increase.

Dr Mike Brumm, Brumm Swine Consultancy Commentary: Dr Mike Brumm on latest Hogs and Pigs Report While the analyst’s commentaries have generally been bearish regarding this report, the item of interest is the continued consolidation of the growing pig inventory in the upper Midwest region of the US.

Steve Meyer, Paragon Economics, Inc Hogs and Pigs Report Special Edition; You've heard the old adage: "Be careful what you wish for!" Well, it came home to roost for me with yesterday's quarterly USDA Hogs and Pigs report. I've lamented how boring the past few reports have been -- no real surprises, no numbers that differed significantly from the previous year. I certainly can't make that complaint this time.

Professor John Lawrence, Iowa State University Losses Mount, Inventories Grow for Pork Producers The USDA released the December Hogs and Pigs report on the 27 December and estimated the inventory of all hogs to be 65.1 million head, up 4.2 percent from a year earlier.

More to follow soon...

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In The News - What The Media Says

• 2008 - An Ugly Ride for Pork Producers - Pork
• Pork Futures: Hog Prices Plummet - FXstreet.com

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Graph Data from the Report

Reliability of December Hogs and Pigs Estimates

To review this information, including the Survey Procedures, Estimation Procedures, Revision Policy and Reliability, please download the PDF

Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report, December 2007 - USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

December 2007