Introduction

This document aims to pull together, in one place of reference, all the various information generated by the USDA Quarterly report. This document includes:

USDA Quarterly Report: September 2007 What It All Means - Expert Commentary In The News - What The Media Says Graph Data From The Report Hog Inventories by State (external link - select State and navigate to file)

For a PRINTABLE VERSION of the full 24 page report in PDF format, including all the tabular data which is not shown in this article, Click Here

US Quarterly Pigs and Hogs Inventory: September 2007

U.S. inventory of all hogs and pigs on September 1, 2007 was 64.6 million head. This was up 3 percent from both September 1, 2006, and June 1, 2007.

Breeding inventory, at 6.14 million head, was up 1 percent from last year, and up slightly from the previous quarter.

Market hog inventory, at 58.5 million head, was up 3 percent from both last year and last quarter.

The June-August 2007 pig crop, at 27.5 million head, was up 4 percent from each of the last two years. Sows farrowing during this period totaled 2.99 million head, up 3 percent from 2006 and up 2 percent from 2005. The sows farrowed during this quarter represented 49 percent of the breeding herd. The average pigs saved per litter was 9.19 for the June-August 2007 period, compared to 9.11 last year. Pigs saved per litter by size of operation ranged from 7.50 for operations with 1-99 hogs and pigs to 9.30 for operations with more than 5,000 hogs and pigs.

U.S. hog producers intend to have 2.96 million sows farrow during the September-November 2007 quarter, up 1 percent from the actual farrowings in 2006, and up 2 percent from 2005. Intended farrowings for December 2007-February 2008, at 2.94 million sows, are up 1 percent from 2007, and up 4 percent from 2006.

The total number of hogs under contract, owned by operations with over 5,000 head, but raised by contractees, accounted for 40 percent of the total U.S. hog inventory, up from 39 percent last year.

Revisions

All inventory and pig crop estimates for September 2006 through June 2007 were reviewed using final pig crop, official slaughter, death loss, and updated import and export data. Based on the findings of this review, small adjustments of slightly larger than one-half of one percent were made to the March 1, 2007 inventory and December 2006 – February 2007 pig crop. An adjustment of less than one-half of one percent was made to the June 1, 2007 total inventory.

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What It All Means - Expert Commentary

What the commentators and industry thinkers read into this data:

Ron Plain and Glenn Grimes Grimes & Plain on the Hogs and Pigs Report The September 1 Hogs and Pigs Report came in above the average of the trade expectations writes Glenn Grimes and Ron Plain.

Dr Mike Brumm, Brumm Swine Consultancy Commentary: Dr Mike Brumm on latest Hogs and Pigs Report With continued profits, albeit at a lower level than many would desire, the US pork industry continues its slow, steady expansion. However, the expansion is not occurring in all states equally.font>

Steve Meyer, Paragon Economics, Inc Hogs and Pigs Report Special Edition; USDA's Quarterly Hogs & released Friday afternoon, Sept. 28, indicates that any hopes of a quick return to profitability for U.S. pork producers is unlikely.

Shane Ellis, Iowa State University September Hog and Pig Report: Expansion Continues The national swine herd continues to expand amid profitable market prices and moderating feed costs.

Chris Hurt, Purdue University Too much Pork; Too high Costs Chris Hurt comments on the latest USDA Hogs and Pigs report

More to follow soon...

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In The News - What The Media Says

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Graph Data from the Report

Reliability of June 1 Hogs and Pigs Estimates

To review this information, including the Survey Procedures, Estimation Procedures, Revision Policy and Reliability, please download the PDF

Source: Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report, September 2007 - USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service