Farm-Scape is sponsored by Manitoba Pork Council and Sask Pork Play Audio Farm-Scape is a Wonderworks Canada production and is distributed courtesy of Manitoba Pork Council and Sask Pork.

Farm-Scape, Episode 1187

Manitoba Agriculture and Food predicts a return to profitable hog prices within the next one to two months.

Statistics Canada's preliminary estimates of 2002 on farm cash receipts show generally higher crop receipts than in 2001 but lower livestock receipts.

Although Manitoba hog production increased by five to six percent and marketings rose by seven to eight percent, cash receipts for hogs fell by about ten percent.

Market Analysis and Statistics Section Manager Janet Honey blames the entire drop on lower hog prices in 2002.

"We're looking at a smaller US sow herd. We're looking at reduced hog slaughter in the US in 2003.

Presumably producers will not feed their hogs to heavier weights, carcass weights will be steady to lower than in 2002 so pork production will probably be one to two percent lower than it was in 2002.

Just recently we've seen increases in hog slaughter in the US of around two and a half percent and this wasn't what was expected.

What was expected was that, in the first quarter, slaughter should start to decrease below year earlier levels.

The increase in slaughter has been attributed to more sows going into the packing plants as well as more gilts and that's a good sign because it shows that US herds are getting smaller than we'd even seen in December and down the road that will mean fewer hogs coming to market."

Honey expects hog prices to start increasing to profitable levels sometime next month or going into April.

She says second quarter prices could rise 20 percent above year earlier levels but, she points out, second quarter prices in 2001 were extremely low because of pressure created by Russia's ban on US poultry.

For Farmscape.Ca, I'm Bruce Cochrane.