Weekly Review: Increase in 2009 Corn Yield

US - Weekly review of the US hog industry, written by Glenn Grimes and Ron Plain.
calendar icon 19 September 2009
clock icon 5 minute read

USDA increased the 2009 corn yield to 161.9 bushels per acre for September; the August estimate was 159.5 bushels per acre. If the September estimate holds, it will be the highest yield of record.

The higher yield pushed the 2009 estimated corn crop to 12.954 billion bushels, up from 12.761 billion bushels for the August estimate.

In September, USDA reduced the estimated corn price per bushel from $3.50 per bushel midpoint estimate in August to 3.35 per bushel midpoint estimate for the 2009-10 marketing year.

The September estimate of the 2009 soybean crop has the yield at 42.3 bushels per acre, up from 41.7 bushels per acre in August. This increased yield pushed the estimated bean crop for 2009 up to 3.245 billion bushels. The August estimate was 3.199 billion bushels. The 2009 soybean crop is expected to be a record-high crop.

The estimated price for soybean meal for the 2009-10 marketing year was lowered to $280 per ton midpoint estimate from $290 per ton in August.

These lower expected prices would reduce the cost of producing 100 pounds live weight of pork by about $0.50 per cwt.

Pork exports for July were down 13.1 per cent from last year; much better than in June when exports were down 35.7 per cent from 2008. The July pork exports were up 18.6 per cent from June.

Pork exports for January-July were down 19.3 per cent from 12 months earlier. Our exports to Japan for January-July were up 1.0, to Mexico up 34.5 per cent, to Canada down 7.3 per cent, to South Korea down 14.9 per cent, to Russia down 30.4 per cent, to Australia up 21.9 per cent to Taiwan up 7.3 per cent, to China and Hong Kong down 71.9 per cent and to other countries down 24 per cent.

Pork imports for January-July were down 3.6 per cent from 12 months earlier. Our imports from Canada were up 4.3 per cent, from Denmark down 7.7 per cent, from Mexico down 66.1 per cent, from Poland down 13.7 per cent, from Italy down 16.3 per cent and from other countries down 34.8 per cent from a year earlier.

Our net pork exports as a per cent of production for January-July of 2008 was 17.91 per cent. This declined to 14.23 per cent for January-July of 2009.

Our live hog imports for January-July of 2009 from Canada were down 32 per cent from the same period of 2008.

The futures market has rallied substantially recently. This market suggests a counter-seasonal price rally is possible and hopefully likely. Retail pork prices were down 0.8 per cent in August from July. There is a chance that retail prices will continue to decline in September.

Live barrow and gilt weights in Iowa-Minnesota at 268.9 pounds were up 1.5 pounds from a week earlier and up seven pounds from 12 months earlier. The bottom line is that there is an ample supply of market-ready hogs.

Gilt and sow slaughter data continues to indicate a modest reduction in the breeding herd. Sow slaughter for the four-week period ending 5 September was up 7.6 per cent from a year earlier and gilt slaughter for this period is above normal.

Pork product cutout this Thursday afternoon at $57.04 per cwt was up $1.97 per cwt from a week earlier.

Feeder pig prices last week nationally were $3-6 per head higher than a week earlier. The average price of 50-54 per cent lean 10-pound pigs was $22.06 per head, formula price pigs at $31.03 per head and negotiated price pigs at $13.16 per head. For 40-pound pigs, the average was $21.40 per head, formula price pigs at $43.81 per head, and negotiated price pigs at $20.62 per head.

Cash live prices Friday morning were $2-2.25 per cwt higher compared to a week earlier. Average negotiated carcass prices were $0.45-1.18 per cwt higher compared to seven days earlier.

The live prices were: Peoria $30.00 per cwt, Zumbrota, Minnesota, $34.00 per cwt and interior Missouri $36.50 per cwt. The weighted average negotiated carcass prices were: western Cornbelt $50.21 per cwt, eastern Cornbelt $47.88 per cwt, Iowa-Minnesota $50.20 per cwt and nation $48.91 per cwt.

Slaughter this week under Federal Inspection was estimated at 2310 thousand head, down 0.7 per cent from a year earlier.

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