Weekly Review: Record High 2009 Soybean Crop Estimated

US - Weekly review of the US hog industry, written by Glenn Grimes and Ron Plain.
calendar icon 17 October 2009
clock icon 4 minute read

The October estimate of the 2009 corn crop is for a production of 13.018 billion bushels -- quite close to the record of 13.038 billion bushels in 2007. The estimated yield for corn in 2009 is 164.2 bushels per acre -- a very substantial increase from the previous record of 160 bushels per acre.

The USDA midpoint estimate for corn prices is $3.30 per bushel, the same as a month earlier but down $0.76 per bushel from the 2008-09 marketing year.

The 2009 soybean crop is estimated to be a record high 3.25 billion bushels. The USDA midpoint estimate for bean prices is $9.00 per bushel, down from $9.97 per bushel in the 2008-09 marketing year.

The midpoint estimate for soybean meal prices for the 2009-10 marketing year is $275 per ton compared to $331.17 per ton a year earlier.

These lower feed prices will reduce the cost of producing hogs by $3-4 per cwt but not nearly enough to erase the red ink of the past year. Therefore, the breeding herd needs to be reduced substantially more than the reductions in the 1 September report.

For the last couple of weeks, gilt and sow slaughter data is not positive for an increase in the rate of decline in the breeding herd.

Pork exports in August were down 18.4 per cent from a year earlier. For January-August pork exports were down 19.2 per cent from 12 months earlier. Pork imports for January-August were down 2.3 per cent form the same months in 2008. However, even with the smaller imports the net pork exports as a per cent of production were 14.1 per cent, down from 17.8 per cent in 2008.

The value of pork exports per hog slaughtered for January-August at $38.46 per head is down from $42.11 per head for the same period last year.

The average live weight of barrows and gilts last week in Iowa-Minnesota was 268.9 pounds per head, up 0.5 pound from a week earlier and up 3.2 pounds from a year earlier.

Pork product cutout bucked the seasonal trend this week with an increase of $3.33 per cwt and amounted to 56.20 per cwt. Loins at $68.85 per cwt were up $1.61 per cwt, Boston butts at $59 per cwt were up $2.96 per cwt, hams at $47.68 per cwt were up $6.48 per cwt, and bellies at $66.85 per cwt were down $0.01 per cwt from a week earlier.

National feeder pig prices last week were generally steady. The average price for 50-54 per cent lean pigs weighing 10 pounds was $30.90 per head and 40-pound pigs were 31.89 per head. The formula-price for 10-pound pigs averaged $33.96 per head and for 40-pound pigs averaged $44.96 per head. The negotiated or cash price for 10-pound pigs averaged $25.42 per head and 40-pound pigs averaged $30.71 per head.

The prices for live slaughter hogs Friday morning were $0.50 per cwt higher to $1.00 per cwt lower compared to a week earlier. The weighted average negotiated carcass prices were $0.42 to $0.98 per cwt higher compared to seven days earlier.

The live prices Friday morning were: Peoria $29 per cwt, Zumbrota, Minnesota, $31 per cwt, and interior Missouri $35 per cwt. The weighted average negotiated carcass prices by area Friday morning were: western Cornbelt $49.07 per cwt, eastern Cornbelt $47.15 per cwt, Iowa-Minnesota $49.20 per cwt and nation $47.93 per cwt.

Slaughter this week under Federal Inspection was estimated at 2295 thousand head, down 2.6 per cent from the same week in 2008.

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