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Pork Commentary: Lean Hog Futures Reflecting Strong Prices in 2011

by 5m Editor
30 November 2010, at 7:59am

US - In this week's North American Pork Commentary, Jim Long writes about US lean hog futures.

Last week Iowa – South Minnesota closed at $64.59 still short of December’s lean hog futures that closed at 70.350; while the Chicago Mercantile Exchange reflects prices over the next year significantly stronger than the current cash price. The lowest price for 2011 is next December at 74.950 while June 2011 closed last Friday at 89.275. The 2011 average lean price is more than an 80 cent average. These are strong prices for 2011.

Other Observations

  • The higher prices expected in lean hog futures is reflected in the big bounce in cash early weans last week which had a jump of almost $4.00 with US cash early weans averaging $45.74. The stronger cash early wean price is a true reflection of supply, demand, and confidence in the market.

  • Sow marketing’s of the latest week’s data indicate 64,086 went to market. Marketing’s over the last few weeks have been in the 64,000 a week range. We expect since the first part of October the North American sow herd has been declining. We believe about 55,000 a week sow slaughter is a steady sow inventory. The jump in feed prices has initiated some producers not sure of the future to see this is the time to exit.

  • US pork in storage at the end of October was 478 million pounds up in the month about 54 million pounds from September but down 38 million pounds fro