A feed manufacturing, nutrition conference and animal health conference were also on the grounds in separate buildings. Attendance was steady from a year ago with cautious optimism. A year ago producers were making well over $100.00 USD per head and with the 6 month price decline; profits are in the $10 -13.00 USD range.

Market hog prices have stabilized and showing strength since the holidays. A 110 kilo (242 pounds) market hog will bring from $206.00 USD per head in west central Russia to $289.00 USD in Siberia. We live in the Krasnodar region where over 9 per cent of the Russian pork is produced. Last week’s gross price was $292.00 USD.

Inputs, particularly feed costs are still high. Net profit per pig is up from $5.00 USD per head in early January to $12.00 USD per head this week. Still the industry is not used to seeing large swings or even cycles. Producers are used to larger profits. Consequently the incentive to invest in new buildings, equipment or replace breeding stock has slowed. Certainly we don’t know them all, but do know of new construction or expansion projects planned for over 50,000 sow spaces in the next 24 months.

The Russian pork industry continues to work toward meeting demand and lowering pork imports. Producers supplied 75 per cent of the countries’ pork needs in 2011 and will be close to 80 per cent when the 2012 numbers are totaled. Moving forward we continue to anticipate growth in pork production, new or expanded slaughter capacity and a more stable domestic pork supply.

Over the next few months we will continue to follow:

1. The Ractopomine (Paylean) issue and how it relates to pork imports from North America.
2. The release of quarantine regions from African Swine Fever.
3. New slaughter capacity is needed and how it progresses.
4. The new crop, wheat in particular.
5. Price subsidies, WTO etc. and the continued effects on the market.