Hog Outlook: Decline in Hog Carcass Prices During October

US - Because of a lapse in federal government funding, USDA stopped issuing market reports on 1 October. As a result, there is little data available on current livestock prices, meat prices, weights or slaughter, write Ron Plain and Scott Brown.
calendar icon 14 October 2013
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The only hog price data available is for the few hogs that move through the traditional auction markets. Peoria had a live price top this morning of $59/cwt, down $3 for the week. Zumbrota, MN was $2 higher than last Friday with a top at $62/cwt. Missouri country markets were 75 cents lower with a top at $63.75/cwt of live weight.

On average, carcass prices for hogs decline by $1.68/cwt per week during October. This week doesn't appear to have been far from average.

Trade estimates put this week's hog slaughter close to 2.29 million head. That is up 3 per cent from the week before, but down 4 per cent from a year ago. On average during October, hog slaughter increases by about 9,000 head per week and dressed weight increase by 0.6 pounds per week.

Testing data from the National Animal Health Laboratory Network says that as of 29 September, the Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea virus (PEDv) has been found in 724 swine premises in 17 states. This is an increase of 40 locations from the week before. There is an unknown amount of double counting in this data.

The CME has announced that absent USDA hog price data, they will calculate the final settlement price of the October lean hog futures contract based on the weighted average of trades on 11 and 14 October.

The October lean hog futures contract settled at $90.75/cwt today, down $1.10 from the previous Friday. December hog futures ended the week at $86.50/cwt, down $1.12 from the week before. February hogs settled at $88.90. April close at $89.85/cwt.

The December corn futures contract ended the week at $4.33/bushel, down 10 cents for the week. February corn settled at $4.46/bushel also down 10 cents from the previous Friday. May corn futures ended the week at $4.545/bushel.

The October soybean meal contract ended the week at $422.00 per ton, down $9.30 from the previous Friday. December meal settled at $403.40, down $15.00 for the week. March meal settled at $394.20 per ton.

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