Wide Range of Expectations for US Hogs and Pigs

US - On Friday, USDA will publish the Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report. In this DLR we summarize the pre-report estimates, and provide some general analysis on trends and expectations, writes the Steiner Consulting Group.
calendar icon 22 December 2016
clock icon 3 minute read

Starting with pre-report estimates for Quarterly Hogs and Pigs, the table below details the range and averages of industry analysts’ expectations.

The range on expectations for all hogs and pigs as of December 1 is slightly wider than normal, and stems from a wider expected range on hogs kept for marketing. Expectations on hogs kept for marketing show yearover-year increases in all weight categories with slightly larger increases in the two heaviest breakouts.

While average estimates show we are slightly more front loaded on heavy hogs, these average numbers still appear to be manageable for the industry.

Additionally, this Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report is as of December 1, and we have already seen some of these heavy hogs come through the packing plants in daily slaughter numbers for December.

Average estimates on hogs kept for breeding shows very limited breeding herd growth, and the range on these estimates is fairly narrow.

September to November farrowings are expected to be almost even with year ago numbers however pigs per litter is expected to increase 1.1 per cent year-over-year (on average). This growth rate on pigs per litter explains the 1.5 per cent year-over-year increase estimate on the September to November pig crop.

Looking out further into the future, farrowing intentions in both December to February and March to May are moderate relative to year ago numbers. Right now, some analysts seem to expect a year-over-year increase in farrowings in the March to May time frame and this could be associated with producers increasing supplies to fulfill needs of the new pork plants coming online in 2017. This, along with any surprises in breeding herd changes, will be watched closely to try and get a handle on what sort of hog supply change these new plants will generate.

Overall this upcoming Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report is rather concise, with no apparent significant disagreements between industry analysts.

© 2000 - 2022 - Global Ag Media. All Rights Reserved | No part of this site may be reproduced without permission.