WASDE projects reduced pork reduction for next quarter

World Ag Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) forecast for 2021 total red meat and poultry production is lowered from last month as stocks of soybeans and corn are revised.

13 October 2021, at 8:49am

The recently released WASDE report forecasts lower US pork production, based on a lagging fourth quarter hog slaughter. The report also reduces red meat and poultry production for 2022, revising analysis from last month.

The USDA’s Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report, released on 24 September, estimated a lower pig crop for June-August and lower farrowing intentions for September-November. This supports lower hog slaughter expectations for first half 2022. Slower expected growth in pigs per litter during 2022 resulted in lower expected hog supplies in the second half of the year.

2021 and 2022 exports

The pork import forecasts are raised on increased supplies of pork on the global market. The pork export forecast for 2021 is reduced on weaker expected demand from China and increased competition in global markets; however, exports are increased for 2022 as growth in several key markets recovers.

The 2021 and 2022 hog price forecasts are raised on lower expected hog supplies.

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The full WASDE report can be read here.