According to a Genesus Global Market Report, the driving force behind the price is a mass culling of sows and commercial pigs to prevent the spread of African swine fever (ASF).

In an earlier estimation, Genesus calculated for a 30% loss, but they've since recalculated that estimate, raising it to 50% or more, reported Paul Anderson, General Manager for SE Asia at Genesus.

Hygiene will be an important factor to consider in a successful herd rebuild, as stalls will need to be properly cleaned and disinfected before restocking.

Genesus said it's difficult to find healthy gilts in Thailand, as most breeders have been impacted by ASF as well. And even when they are available, attaining the proper permits to move them is difficult, as the movement of pigs is carefully controlled to avoid the spread of disease.

Genesus compared the situation in Thailand to that of Vietnam a year ago where ASF outbreaks caused a shortage of gilts that led to price hikes for pork. Vietnam allowed imports of gilts and commercial stock from Thailand at that time, but this is not something Thailand can do, especially as ASF spreads widely in Vietnam again.

The solution, said Genesus, will be to restock farms with high health, high genetic merit breeding stock as quickly as possible. The rebuild could still take a couple of years, though. Shortages will be inevitable.