USDA raises forecast for meat, poultry production

Higher beef, pork production offset lower poultry production
calendar icon 14 June 2022
clock icon 3 minute read

According to the US Department of Agriculture's most recent WASDE report, the total US red meat and poultry production forecast for 2022 is raised from last month as higher beef and pork production more than offset lower poultry production. Beef production is raised with higher expected steer and heifer and cow slaughter more than offsetting lower expected carcass weights.

Pork production is raised for the second quarter on the current pace of slaughter, although carcass weights are reduced slightly; no changes are made to the outlying quarters. The Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report, to be released on 29 June, will provide indications of supplies of hogs for slaughter in the outlying quarters as well as into early 2023. Broiler production is reduced on the pace of slaughter and recent hatchery data. Turkey production is reduced on the current pace of slaughter. The production forecasts for 2023 for beef, pork, broiler meat, and turkey meat are unchanged from last month.

For 2022, beef exports are raised reflecting stronger sales to several markets in Asia and the strength of demand is expected to carry into early 2023. Stronger demand in several key markets support higher pork, broiler meat, and turkey meat exports forecasts for 2022; the 2023 forecasts are unchanged. For 2022, the import projection for beef is lowered, while pork imports are raised reflecting recent trade data.

The 2022 cattle price forecast is unchanged from last month. Hog, broiler, and egg prices for the second quarter are lowered from last month on observed prices; no change is made to price forecasts for the outlying quarters. Second-quarter turkey prices are raised on prices to date, but no change is made to the price forecasts for the outlying quarters. No changes are made to the price forecasts for 2023.

Milk production for 2022 is forecast lower than last month on slower growth in milk-per-cow than previously expected. Milk per cow is also reduced slightly for 2023, resulting in lower forecast milk production. For 2022, commercial exports on a fat basis are unchanged from last month, but skim-solids exports are raised on stronger exports of whey and lactose. For 2023, exports are raised on a fat basis due to stronger expected cheese exports but reduced on a skim-solids basis due to weaker expected sales of skim milk powder. Imports for 2022 are raised on stronger expected demand for cheese, butterfat products, and a number of other dairy products; strength in butterfat product imports is expected to carry into next year and the 2023 forecast is increased. Skim-solids imports are raised for 2022 but are unchanged for 2023.

Price forecasts for cheese, butter, and nonfat dry milk (NDM) are raised from the previous month on recent price strength and stronger anticipated demand. The whey price forecast is lowered on observed prices. With mostly stronger product prices, both Class III and Class IV prices are raised. The all milk price forecast is raised to $26.20 per cwt for 2022. Continued strengthening in demand, coupled with modest growth in production, is expected to support cheese, butter, and NDM prices in 2023. Thus, prices for those products are raised but whey prices are expected to remain under pressure and the forecast for 2023 is lowered. Nonetheless, the higher price for cheese more than offsets a weaker forecast whey price and the Class III price is forecast higher. Higher forecast butter and NDM prices result in a higher Class IV price. The 2023 all milk price is forecast higher at $23.80 per cwt.

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