According to the EU's most recent short-term outlook report, which is based on reflections of market experts within the European Commission's Department for Agriculture and Rural Development, EU pig meat production is due to decrease by 5% in 2022. 

Among EU countries, Germany, Poland, Belgium, Romania and Italy are the most impacted, The Netherlands and France to a lesser extent. 

African Swine Fever (ASF) is still taking a heavy toll on German production (-10% in Jan-Jun 2022 year-on-year). Moreover, production growth in Spain (+1.6%) does not seem as strong as in 2021 (+3.7%).

Given the odds that input prices stay high in 2023 and that ASF continues triggering strong responses in affected countries, EU pig meat production is expected to decrease further slightly, by another 0.7%.

With high input costs, the pressure on margins is not fading away, which adds on top of an otherwise lack of attractiveness of this sector for young farmers.

EU pigmeat domestic use may decrease by 1.9% in 2022, averaging at 32.1 kg per capita. Expected to remain stable in 2023, EU domestic use would average at 32 kg per capita.