Brazil pork production forecast to increase 5% in 2024

Exports expected to represent 31% of total production
calendar icon 20 September 2023
clock icon 2 minute read

Brazil's pork production is forecast to rise 5%, reaching 47.05 million head in 2023 and 49.62 million head in 2024, according to a recent US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Global Agricultural Information Network (GAIN) report.

Sows inventories are up by 2%. 

In 2023 and 2024, industry will benefit from decreased cost of production, especially feed, and the sector should see improved profit margins after two years of negative balances. The USDA post forecasts a 5% increase in slaughter for 2023 and a 4% increase in 2024, concentrated in the South region of Brazil. These slaughter forecasts consider increased production and positive external demand for the pork products globally. 

The USDA post forecasts exports of live swine animals at 4 thousand heads for 2023 and 2024. Imports of live swine animals forecast at 5 thousand heads in 2023 and 4 thousand heads in 2024. Swine imports are focused on genetic improvement.

Pork production is expected to increase 7% in 2023 and 5% in 2024. The forecast considers high external demand, new markets accessed throughout the year, improved economic conditions locally, record corn and soybean crops leading to improved availability and a reduction in feed prices, and increased swine production. 

Pork consumption in Brazil will increase 6% in 2023 to 3.22 MMT CWE and 4% in 2024 to 3.35 MMT CWE, due to improved availability of pork domestically and cheaper prices to the consumers. Exports exports forecast to increase 8% in 2023 and 7% in 2024. 

Forecasts for improved exports are based on increased pork availability, high external demand, potential purchases from new markets, and increased exports to existing consumers. Exports expected to represent 31% of total production. Pork imports expected to reach 2 MMT CWE for 2023 and 2024, stable from 2022 numbers.

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