Japan pig inventory projected slightly higher in 2024 - GAIN

Inflated production costs remain a problem
calendar icon 14 September 2023
clock icon 2 minute read

FAS/Tokyo projects higher beginning inventory of swine in Japan in 2024, according to a recent US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Global Agricultural Information Network (GAIN) report.

Although production costs are still high, strong carcass prices and steady domestic demand should sustain operators’ production levels. Slaughters in 2024 will be up, but pig production will more than keep pace, so ending inventory in 2024 will be up year on year.

According to the latest statistics published by the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF), as of February 1, 2023, Japan’s swine population expanded slightly, by 0.4%, from 2022, even though the total number of hog operators shrank by 6 % as many smaller to medium size hog farm operators exited the market or merged with larger operators. Demographics are a factor: existing farmers are reaching retirement age but attracting successors to take over farms remains a challenge.

Inflating production costs also remain a problem. Feed costs at hog operations were about 65% of total production costs per head in 2020, but in the three-year period ending in May 2023 average feed costs were up by 51%. Support payments by MAFF offset some of the higher costs (for details, read beef section in this report). It also helps that carcass prices are at historically high levels. Meat industries expect strong domestic retail demand for pork will continue to support carcass prices.

In the first half of 2023, hogs were finished to heavier weights which reduced total slaughters by 2%. In the Japan market, heavier carcasses can command a premium price per kilo, which offsets the cost of the additional feed required. High carcass prices resulted in the 6-month average carcass weight rising to 79.5 kg.

In 2023, impact of Classical Swine Fever (CSF) was minor: only two cases were reported, with just 2,950 heads culled. FAS/Tokyo assumes minimal impact of CSF again this year.

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