Between COVID-19 related processing disruptions, labour and mechanical issues in processing plants, and closure of processing lines, Canada has markedly increased exports of market hogs to the United States in recent years, according to a recent US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Global Agricultural Information Network (GAIN) report.

Canadian producers should be responding to slaughter reductions. US herd expansion does not appear to be materialising yet, and US consumer demand for pork is waning. As a result, Canadian exports of market hogs are forecast to drop in 2024. 

FAS/Ottawa is forecasting an 11% decline across all live exports from 2023 to 2024; exports of weaners and market hogs will both fall year-over-year. A smaller Canadian herd and smaller pig crop will influence these lowered live export volumes, and exports to Canadian inventory will fall to a smaller percentage compared to 2022 and 2023.

State-level animal welfare legislation may also negatively impact live exports from Canada depending on how supply chains are impacted by legislation such as Proposition 12. Directly, California is not significant to Canadian exporters, but there are potentially significant indirect impacts via other states. Western Canadian producers have long standing relationships with US finishers for placing weaners. Manitoba especially has a higher level of weanling production than finishing spaces. 

While there has been some new construction of finishing space within the province, production numbers will continue to be larger than available spaces. Canada’s animal welfare legislation does not match the prescriptive wording set out by Proposition 12. This could result in decreased demand for Canadian live exports, or these animals could end up being discounted depending on how implementation of Proposition 12 requirements impacts hog producing and finishing states.