Australian pork production expected to rise 2% in 2024
Consumers seeking alternatives to high-priced beef, lambAustralian pork production in 2024 is forecast to increase by 2% to 480,000 MT (CWE), from the upward revised 2023 estimate of 470,000 MT (CWE), according to a recent US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Global Agricultural Information Network (GAIN) report.
The rapid growth in beef and lamb prices, during their short supply while these sectors were rebuilding their herd and flock numbers, has spawned an increase in consumers seeking lower cost meat protein alternatives and has encouraged growth in pork production in 2023.
The strong growth in pork production in the first half of 2023 is expected to flow into early 2024. However, only a small overall growth in pork production is forecast for 2024 as a result of an expectation that lower cattle and sheep prices will filter through to retail meat prices in the back half of 2023 and into 2024. This is anticipated to trigger the onset of adjustment in pork production.
Australia exports less than 10% of the pork that it produces, and it imports far more than it exports. Australian pork production is strongly influenced by pork import prices, as well as competition from other major meat protein sources. The main competing meat protein sources for pork are poultry, beef and lamb.
From 2019 at the tail end of a multi-year drought when supply of cattle and lambs for processing began to dwindle, and the three subsequent years to 2022 when supply was further reduce while cattle and lamb producers were rebuilding the national herd and flock numbers, the price of beef and lamb escalated.
During the same period, although the price of pork increased it was to a far lesser degree than for beef and lamb, while the price of poultry only very moderately increased. With this price dynamic the consumption of beef and lamb fell and was substituted by increased consumption of pork and poultry. Australia produces far more beef and lamb than it consumes, so the available supply to the domestic market is not a constraint.