The revised 2024 forecast of pork shipments by US and EU, the world’s top two exporters, are nearly on par for the first time since 2015, according to the most recent USDA World Markets and Trade report for livestock and poultry. 

US and EU exports for 2024 are both revised lower compared to the October forecast. However, the gap is narrowed for these competitors as US shipments are revised only 1% lower whereas EU shipments are revised 3% lower.

The downward revisions for US and EU exports are driven by expected weaker shipments to China, the world’s largest importer. Continued weak demand by China reduces export opportunities, particularly for the EU. Although US export volumes to China remain a significant part of total exports, US share of exports to China is less than for the EU. In 2022, US shipments to China accounted for 10% of total exports, while EU shipments to China accounted for 27% of total exports.

In addition, EU production has declined in recent years and is revised 2% lower in 2024, tightening exportable supplies. Forecast growth in US production and lower prices are expected to underpin US exports competitiveness in several markets.