Outlook for Brazil swine sector remains favourable
Pork exports expected to match 2023 numbers
16 January 2024
2 minute read
By: The outlook for Brazil's swine sector is favourable for 2024, based on the possible increases of the domestic consumption and exports and the possibility of lower production costs compared to previous years, according to a recent market report from Cepea.
As for the domestic consumption, the demand for pork meat is likely to remain firm this year. Cepea calculations indicate that the pork meat consumption is expected to increase 2.8% in relation to 2023.
Regarding pork meat shipments, the sector expects the performance obtained in 2023 to continue this year. From January to November last year, Brazilian exports totalled 1.1 million tons; therefore, they could surpass the 2021 record (1.12 million tons).
The agreement between ABPA (Brazilian Association of Animal Protein) and ApexBrasil (Brazilian Trade and Investment Promotion Agency) was renewed until 2025, aiming to promote meat exports, pork included.
Despite the 11% decrease of exports to China from 2022 to 2023 (between January and November), shipments to that country are likely to continue firm in 2024, due to the increasing number of African Swine Fever (ASF) cases in Europe, which tends to allocate the Chinese demand to Brazil. According to data from the USDA, pork meat production in the European Union may decrease 1.6% in 2024.9
In order to meet both domestic and international demands for in natura and processed products, Cepea estimates that the number of animals slaughtered could increase 3.3% from 2023 to 2024, at 59.1 million animals.
