Ukraine pork production drop in 2022 was smaller than expected, based on released official numbers, according to a recent US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Global Agricultural Information Network (GAIN) report.

The major pork price surge in the EU observed in 2023 was reflected in Ukraine stabilising animal inventory in the second half of the year. 2023 pork production was just slightly below the 2022 level. However, this pork price surge led to a significant domestic consumption drop as the poorer population switched to cheaper poultry. 

Observing a decline in demand, the Ukrainian swine industry stopped investments in new animal inventory in early 2024. The number of pigs is expected to be stable in 2024, despite somewhat lower pork prices. 2024 pork production is expected to be a bit higher, with animal inventory being stable till the end of 2024. 

Ukrainian imports of pork dropped drastically in 2023 due to over 50% import price growth. The EU’s pork market remains the primary source of pork imports due to geographic proximity and the EU’s pork transit restrictions limiting imports to EU-approved facilities.

Ukraine is an African Swine Fever-impacted country. The disease severely restricts its export abilities. The number of registered ASF cases in 2023 grew quite notably, but ASF is not expected to impact industrial production much.