Swine inventory and the swine herds in Ukraine are expected to remain stable in 2024, according to a recent US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Global Agricultural Information Network (GAIN) report.

Before the war started, Ukraine's swine industry had been on a long downward trend. The sector was restructuring from household to industrial production with market exit of inefficient farms of both types. Uncertainty in the early days of the war resulted in the inability to procure inputs or sell market pigs. However, the industry avoided the massive inventory slaughter similar to the one experienced by the cattle sector. Swine producers were not as dependent on daily sales as Ukrainian dairy farmers. Some 2022 hogs were sold at higher weight, and some were shipped to war-unaffected regions for finishing. 

However, the swine inventory decrease accelerated in 2022. Partially this declining trend was driven by historical trends and partially by war-related factors. A limited number of swine producers in the eastern and northern regions of Ukraine suffered from direct war losses. Some farms were destroyed entirely. However, the majority of producers concentrated in the traditional production pockets in central and western Ukraine were not impacted directly. 

Ukraine’s State Statistics Service resumed publication of production indicators in early 2023. The 2022 decline in the number of sows was smaller than expected, and so was the decline in production and slaughter. The 2022 PSD numbers were updated to match the official statistics. 

Due to the pork price hike, 2023 pig production was higher than expected, with animal inventory comparable to the 2022 number. A significant pork price increase in neighboring EU countries was the main driver of Ukraine’s increased production. Significant import decreases that followed the EU’s production drop created a good opportunity that the Ukrainian pig farmers used. 

The majority of Ukrainian industrial pig producers are vertically integrated farrow-to-finish operations. During 2023 there was an inflow of small operators specializing in finishing operations only. Those farms had limited production experience and were attracted by high pork prices.  

No reliable public information is available on the 2023 year-end animal inventory. Some shreds of evidence suggest that the industry did not expect such a significant pork price hike in 2023 and does no believe that it will last in 2024. In fact pork prices declined in the late months of 2023 and early 2024. The number of sows in early 2024 is likely to be similar to 2023, with a comparable animal inventory and production outlook. The industry is generally happy with the current sales level and income. No significant investments into new swine inventory are reported.