It is generally acknowledged that 2023 was a difficult year for hog producers. Iowa State University calculates that monthly producer losses last year averaged more than $24 per head, according to a recent US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Global Agricultural Information Network (GAIN) report.

The December 2023 Quarterly Hogs and Pigs showed a year-over-year reduction in the December 1 breeding inventory of more than 3%. Sow slaughter data issued weekly by USDA suggests that reductions in the U.S breeding inventory are likely continuing. For weeks 1–7 of 2024, USDA data show that sow and boar slaughter increased about 5.8% over the same period last year. 

A continuation of the trend established in the first 7 weeks of 2024 would further downsize the inventory of breeding animals. Fewer breeding animals usually means fewer farrowings, which are typically associated with smaller pig crops, depending on litter rates. In general, smaller pig crops usually result in higher hog prices.