USDA is revising Canadian live pig export numbers for 2024 higher but maintaining the original forecast trend for live exports to decline in 2023, according to a recent US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Global Agricultural Information Network (GAIN) report.

The backlog of market hogs will continue to see larger market hog exports through the first quarter and potentially first half of 2024. 

This number is expected to ease through the second half of the year as producers adjust production, however, market hog exports will continue to remain at elevated levels. 

Feeder exports will increase slightly in 2024, especially out of Western Canada. 

Reduced disease pressure and lower mortality will support the slight growth in these exports. 

Contacts continue to report little meaningful expansion in finishing space in Canada, a trend likely to be maintained especially in Eastern Canada with reduced processing capacity. 

Additional processing capacity exists in Western Canada and has seen improved utilisation. 

Expansion in sow slaughter in Western Canada will also see few cull sow exports to the United States in 2024 and onward. 

The North 49 Foods cull sow plant in Saskatchewan came online in fall 2023 and has the potential for processing 225,000 head per year. 

The joint venture between Winkler Meats in Manitoba and Johnsonville will expand Manitoba cull sow slaughter capacity but that plant expansion will not come online until 2025.