According to its spring forecast, the EU Commission expects EU pork production to stabilise in 2024, according to a recent market from ISN, the interest group for German pig keepers. For the current year, the Brussels experts expect a manageable drop in production of 0.4%. For pork exports, the EU forecasts a minus of 4%, as EU exporters are currently less competitive than competitors such as the USA or Brazil due to higher prices in international trade.

Increased sow stands indicate recovery

Recently, the EU Commission published its spring forecast on the development of the EU agricultural markets. After the very sharp decline in European pork production by 6.6% in 2023, the Brussels experts expect a manageable minus of 0.4% for the current year.

In the past livestock counts in autumn or winter, an increase in sow stocks of 170,000 sows in the EU was found, which could be interpreted as the beginning of a recovery period after three years of enormous declines - but considerable differences between the individual Member States should be noted. With regard to the ASP situation, the EU Commission does not assume any dramatic changes, but increases in feed prices are conceivable depending on the upcoming harvest.

Declining EU pork exports expected

On the demand side, the Brussels experts expect a stable development of pork consumption in the EU. In foreign trade, they expect a persistently challenging situation for European exporters. Due to the oversupfiry on the Chinese market, China's import demand is also likely to be low in the current year. In addition, EU exporters are currently less competitive than the USA or Brazil due to the higher prices in international trade. Overall, the EU Commission forecasts a further decline in EU pork exports by 4% for 2024. Last year, the EU had already lost market shares to a significant extent to the two competitors USA and Brazil, which resulted in a drop in EU pork exports of 24.6% (without by-products).