USDA trims 2025 pork output forecast on tighter hog supply
Lower slaughter, strong demand and steady feed costs aid profits
7 October 2025
2 minute read
By: Second-half US pork production is reduced by about 180 million pounds on lower-than- expected availability of slaughter-ready hogs and fractionally lower average dressed weights in the third quarter, according to the US Department of Agriculture's Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook for September.
Total 2025 pork production is forecast at 27.6 billion pounds, a decrease of less than 1% compared with last year’s production. July pork exports were 3% lower than July 2024, driven by an 11% decrease in shipments to Mexico.
Variables contributing to hog production profitability for most of 2025 appear poised to hold their present course, creating conditions for continued profitability for producers for the balance of this year and into 2026. Positive contributors to hog producers’ bottom line include lower available supplies of slaughter-ready hogs, obliging processors to bid higher prices for hogs; beef prices continue to climb, lifting wholesale pork prices solidly above year earlier levels. Finally, increases in hog producers’ feed costs have moderated, lowering overall production costs. Good prospects for large US feed grain and oilseed harvests are likely to restrain sharp increases to feed costs into 2026, all else equal.
The estimated federally inspected (FI) hog slaughter in August was about 10.1 million head, about 2.7% below a year ago. Combined with lower estimated FI average dressed weights—about 209 pounds per head this year compared with 210 pounds per head in August 2024—estimated FI pork production was estimated at 2.1 billion pounds, 3.2% lower than a year ago after adjusting for a one day year-over-year slaughter day difference.
At least some portion of recent lower-than-expected animal numbers is attributable to continued disease outbreaks in major hog–producing States. The Swine Health Information Center notes in its September Advisory Group Report that while overall Porcine Reproductive and Respiratory Syndrome (PRRSV) cases were below expectations in August, in 2 major producing States, Iowa and Minnesota, positive PRRSV cases were standard deviations above state-specific baselines, similar to its July report. Ongoing disease problems create holes in slaughter schedules, particularly due to reduced numbers of slaughter-ready hogs. The Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report, due for release by USDA on September 25, will provide detailed information on September 1 hog inventories, as well as comparative classifications by hog weight categories.
Moderating feed costs have also improved hog producers’ returns. Iowa State University’s estimates of returns for Iowa farrow-to-finish hog production shows that feed costs have declined more than 3% since January 2025. Feed cost increases are expected to remain tempered as the September World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) shows 2025 US corn production forecast at 16.8 billion bushels, an increase of more than 13% over the 2024/25 crop year. The WASDE also shows a 4% year-over-year increase in its US soybean meal production forecast. If realised, prices of major hog ration inputs are not likely to be an important source of cost increases for hog producers for the balance of this year, and into 2026.
Because the demand for hogs derives from consumers’ demand for pork, strong pork demand is crucial to hog producers’ returns. Consumer demand for pork appears solid going into autumn. Through September 15, the cutout averaged $114.51 per hundredweight, almost 21% higher than a year ago. Although tighter supplies contribute, at least in part, to higher cutout values, continued increases in beef prices and the robust rate of pork clearing the domestic market thus far in the year demonstrate the strength in consumer demand.
