Weak pork demand keeps hog futures under pressure - CME
Cattle futures rally on oil slump, firm cash prices
17 June 2026
2 minute read
By: Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) cattle futures continued to rally on Tuesday, gaining support from a slump in oil prices, relatively high cash cattle prices and general strength in the US equity markets, Reuters reported, citing analysts.
The Nasdaq Composite and the S&P 500 finished lower on Tuesday under pressure from technology stocks, but the Dow Jones Industrial Average marked its second straight record close and SpaceX rallied to become the fifth-most valuable US company.
Strength on Wall Street tends to support optimism about consumer demand for pricey cuts of beef, while falling oil prices have some fund traders predicting demand for higher-priced steaks could boom during the US grilling season.
"The thinking has been that the higher the price of gas, the more that cuts into consumer demand for beef. And the lower the price of filling your tank, the more cash people have to spend" at the meat counter, said Dan Norcini, an independent livestock analyst.
Oil prices fell about 5% for a second day in a row to a three-month low on Tuesday as details emerged of an interim deal to end the war in the Middle East and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, including an agreement to allow Iran to sell oil.
The deal would extend a tenuous ceasefire announced in April by another 60 days and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran has effectively blocked since the US and Israel first attacked Iran.
Still, Norcini said, consumer demand for beef has stayed strong throughout the US-Iran war. "I think what we're seeing in the markets right now is more of a psychological trade than anything else."
Cash cattle markets cooled slightly last week but maintained a substantial premium to futures, making futures seem under-priced, traders said. Thinly traded CME June live cattle futures settled on Tuesday at 255.300 cents per pound, up 4.675 cents on the day, while most-active August ended 5.950 cents higher at 249.200 cents a pound.
CME August feeder cattle futures closed 5.325 cents higher at 366.875 cents per pound.
Rising beef prices lent support. The US Department of Agriculture priced choice cuts of beef at $399.91 per hundredweight (cwt) on Tuesday morning, up $4.86 from Monday, while select cuts were up $1.58 at $377.99 per cwt.
Meanwhile, beef packer margins continued to be deeply in the red. Packers were losing an estimated $227.75 per head of cattle slaughtered, compared with a $251.90 loss per head a week ago.
Hog futures were mixed, with nearby contracts turning lower as wholesale pork prices continued to sputter on signs of sluggish consumer demand. The USDA priced pork carcasses Tuesday afternoon at $95.57 per cwt, down $1.55 from Monday.
"Funds are large shorts in the lean hogs, because the pork cutout continues to drop. And that's just continuing to push down those hog futures prices," Norcini said.
CME July lean hog futures settled down 1.775 cents at 94.800 cents per pound, while most-active August ended down 0.725 cent at 95.050 cents.
