Weekly Roberts Market Report27 July 2012
Michael T. Roberts
Extension Agriculture Economist,
Dairy and Commodity Marketing,
NC State University
US - Corn exports were bearish at 19.6 mb vs. the 33.3 mb needed to meet USDA’s demand projection pace, writes Michael Roberts.
LEAN HOGS on the CME finished down on Monday. AUG’12LH futures finished $0.375/cwt lower at $93.325/cwt but $3.525/cwt lower than last Monday’s close. The DEC’12LH contract closed at $76.050/cwt; down $0.600/cwt. Losses swept the market on fears of record-high pork inventories. Heat was seen as stressing weight gains and viewed as supportive. However, slow processor demand offset support. The USDA cold storage report last Friday showed pork stocks still at record highs. Wholesale pork prices made small gains late last week.
CORN futures on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) finished down on Monday. The SEPT’12 contract closed at $8.140/bu; off 10.5¢/bu. The DEC’12 contract closed at $7.854/bu; down 10.25¢/bu. Profit taking and prospects for wet weather were supportive. Exports were bearish at 19.6 mb vs. the 33.3 mb needed to meet USDA’s demand projection pace.
SOYBEAN futures on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) closed down on Monday. The AUG’12 contract closed at $16.984/bu; off 59.0¢/bu. NOV’12 futures closed at $16.222/bu; down 64.0¢/bu. Non-commercial position building pressured sell-off activity. Rain forecasts also pressured prices. Exports were neutral-to-bullish. Futures look bearish with so many long positions in place given there are only six reporting weeks left in the marketing year.
WHEAT futures in Chicago (CBOT) closed down on Monday. SEPT’12 wheat futures finished at $9.126/bu; off 30.5¢/bu. The JULY’13 contract closed at $8.104/bu; down 9.0¢/bu. CBOT wheat futures cut losses Monday following the corn market’s test of the upside. Both commercial and non-commercial bull position accumulation has driven prices. The market remains fundamentally bullish long term.