Executive Summary

High swine and productive sow inventories will boost China’s pork production four per cent to an estimated 50.6 million metric tons (MMT) in 2010. Pork imports will rebound 11 per cent to 220,000 from sharply lower levels in 2009. The gains will be fuelled by an expected resumption in shipments from the United States and a stronger economy. Post forecasts China’s live swine and pork exports in 2010 to rise four and three per cent, respectively, to 1.78 million head and 240,000 metric tons (MT), boosted by an improving economy in key markets including Hong Kong.

Modest Gain in Chinese Pork Production Expected in 2010

High swine and productive sow inventories in early 2010 and a strong economy will support a continued rise in Chinese pork production this year. Overall, Post projects pork output will rise four per cent to 50.6 million tons. Total pig crop production is forecast up three per cent to 668.5 million head in 2010. The national end-of-year swine and productive sow inventories in 2009 rose 1.32 per cent and 0.64 per cent, respectively, to 469 million and 49.1 million head from the previous year, significantly higher than government target levels. At the moment, the Chinese government guidance for the swine industry is to control total swine inventory at 410 million head with productive sows accounting for not more than 10 per cent, well below current levels (see table 1). The Chinese government continues to urge domestic swine producers to avoid expanding placements in order to prevent oversupplies.

However, reducing China’s pig crop will be difficult as the current sow inventory is considered more productive than the same time last year, as farmers increased slaughter of old or low-yield sows in late 2008 and early 2009 before prices began to fall. Sows are most productive in early years (litters one to four) so the younger sow crop in 2010 compared to 2009 will support higher production this year. Swine producers are expected to maintain high sow levels despite a risk of oversupply.

Larger-sized hog farms – with annual slaughter at or above 50 head – are becoming more important as less efficient backyard operators continue to decline as a share of total production. To encourage larger-sized hog farm development, the government provided subsidies worth RMB2.5 billion ($366 million) in 2009 targeted to improve hog raising conditions in these facilities. Overall, the Ministry of Agriculture has reported farms of 50 hogs or more now account for almost 60 per cent of total slaughter, up from less than half in 2007. These larger farms are more likely to practice disease control measures and operate under contracts with slaughter facilities, making returns more predictable. Post expects further gains in larger farms as a share of total production in 2010.

Government subsidies to increase China’s sow herd, introduced in the wake of the 2007 blue ear disease outbreak, have also played a significant role in increased production. The subsidy grew from RMB50 ($7.32) per head to RMB100 ($14.64) in 2009, successfully boosting the sow herd from under 40 million to nearly 50 million animals. However, while the subsidy was applied nationwide initially, only certain provinces have continued this in 2010. Separately, a sow insurance subsidy of RMB60 ($8.80) per head has continued this year.

Gradual improvement in animal genetics is also being observed, with modest government subsidies introduced in 2009. According to the ‘Notice of 2009 High-Quality Livestock Breeding Stocks Subsidy Programme, and Implementation Guidance by the Ministry of Finance’, the central government provided RMB29.6 million ($4.34 million) subsidising breeding stock improvement in Hubei Province (one of the largest producers) which continues into 2010 covering nineteen cities and counties. Each productive sow was subsidised RMB40 ($5.87) annually for two litters with each litter using two straws of high-quality boar semen. Double-digit gains in swine feed is also improving efficiency. In 2009, swine feed production was estimated at 51.03 MMT, up 11.5 per cent from the previous year.

Providing steady and abundant supplies of affordable pork is considered important for social stability, as 65 per cent of China’s animal protein comes from pork. To stabilise prices and ensure sufficient farmer returns, the government implemented a market intervention scheme in 2009 whereby the central government purchases pork for state reserves whenever the pork/grain price ratio falls below six. Since introduction, the government has announced purchases once, taking 120,000 MT of pork off the market in June 2009. Following the purchase, prices picked up immediately. As a result, sow inventory began rebounding in the latter half of 2009.

Rising feed costs remain a threat to hog producer returns. According to the China National Grain and Oil Information Center, domestic corn production declined 1.8 per cent to 163 MMT in 2009 because of severe drought. On 12 October 2009, the State Council decided at its Standing Committee meeting to continue subsidising corn, soybean and rapeseed procurements for central reserves at protective prices. On 1 December 2009, China suspended auction of temporarily reserved corn in producing areas because of lower production. In January 2010, China announced the corn procurement protective price at RMB1,500 ($219.62) per ton, the same as the previous year. At the same time, the government allowed some feed companies involve in corn procurement for their own use beside COFCO, a state monopoly for serial and oil imports and exports. Less supply and more competition in handling procurement will most likely keep corn prices strong in 2010.

Pork Consumption Continues to Rise

Post forecasts Chinese total pork consumption in 2010 to rise nearly four per cent to 50.6 MMT, following a five per cent increase in the previous year. Strong consumer preference for pork as the meat of choice, projected robust economic growth in 2010 at nearly nine per cent, and low pork prices will all factor into further consumption gains. Consumer demand will be further bolstered by the large number of migrant workers (mostly farmers) who had lost their jobs in cities in 2008 and returned to the farm, are now back at work in urban areas as consumers of pork rather than producers.

Pork Import Ban Lifted But Trade Yet to Resume Due to Additional Certification Requirement for A-H1N1

US pork implemented in late April in response to human A-H1N1 cases in the United States. However, on 3 December 2009, AQSIQ/Import and Export Food Safety Bureau notified FAS Beijing in its No. 1175 letter that it will require additional A/H1N1 influenza certification for all pork exports to China as follows: ‘Through monitoring and ante-mortem quarantine, the source swine population of pig products is not infected with A/H1N1 influenza. Pork products are not contaminated by the A/H1N1 influenza.’ The United States maintains the certification statements are unnecessary since current US certification is sufficient to ensure safe trade. Bilateral negotiations are continuing.

Chinese Pork Imports Reduced by Higher Chinese Production and A-H1N1 Import Ban

Higher Chinese pork production in 2009 lowered import demand for most of the year, well more than offsetting strong import levels toward the end of 2009 as prices rebounded. Overall, China’s pork imports (including offals, casings and trans-shipments through Hong Kong) in 2009 declined by roughly one-third to 650,000 metric tons. Since China banned US pork after 27 April 2009 due to human cases of A-H1N1, shipments from the EU became more important in 2009, accounting for well over half of sales. Canadian pork comprised most of the remainder. 2009 shipments from the United States totaled just over 100,000 metric tons, down from 349,000 metric tons in 2008.

fuelled by a stronger Chinese economy in 2010, Post projects China’s pork imports will rebound in 2010 despite continued gains in Chinese production. An expected resumption in imports from the United States in 2010 will also support higher imports. While offals are the primary pork import, there is also strong interest in imported leg and shoulder meat, picnics and ribs for use by food processors and food-service operators.

Lower Live Swine Imports due to A-H1N1 Import Ban

China’s imports of live breeding swine fell from over 10,000 head in 2008, to under 3,000 head last year, due to China’s A-H1N1 ban on swine from North America. North America accounts for nearly all China’s live hog imports. Interest among Chinese producers for US hogs remains strong. However, following an expected market opening in early 2010 as H1N1 concerns continue to wane, sales could be limited compared to 2008 by an oversupply of sows and expiration of sow subsidies in most Chinese provinces. Long term, China’s need for swine genetic improvement will continue to boost sales for US hogs, as the quality characteristics of US breeding swine are well-known and widely accepted by Chinese swine producers

Steady Growth in Live Swine and Pork Exports

China only exports live swine to Hong and Macau for slaughter. As Hong Kong’s economy is recovering from an impact of the world financial crisis, demand there for fresh pork from hogs slaughtered in Hong Kong is expected higher in 2010. Post expects China’s total live swine exports to increase nearly four per cent to forecast 1.78 million head in 2010.

China’s total pork exports in 2010 are forecast to increase three per cent to 240,000 MT, fuelled by higher demand in export markets. Southeast Asian countries or areas are China’s main export markets with Hong Kong market accounting for over 50 per cent of China’s total exports. Post expects exports to Japan will decline in 2010, dampened by higher Japanese production and stocks.

Further Reading

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March 2010