Introduction

This document aims to pull together, in one place of reference, all the various information generated by the USDA Quarterly report. This document includes: USDA Quarterly report
What it all means Will be updated as commentary appears
Graph data from the report For a PRINTABLE VERSION of the full 24 page report in PDF format, including all the tabular data which is not shown in this article, Click Here

PIGS & HOGS: SEPTEMBER 2001 REPORT

U.S. inventory of all hogs and pigs on September 1, 2001, was 58.6 million head. This was 1 percent below September 2000, but 1 percent above June 1, 2001.

Breeding inventory, at 6.16 million head, was down 1 percent from September 1, 2000, and down slightly from June 1, 2001. Market hog inventory, at 52.5 million head, was 1 percent below last year, but 1 percent above last quarter.

The June-August 2001 U.S. pig crop, at 25.0 million head, was 2 percent less than 2000, and 3 percent less than 1999. Sows farrowing during this period totaled 2.84 million head, 2 percent below last year. The sows farrowed during this quarter represented 46 percent of the breeding herd. The average pigs per litter was 8.82 pigs saved per litter for the June-August 2001 period, compared to 8.84 pigs last year. Pigs saved per litter by size of operation ranged from 7.40 for operations with 1-99 hogs to 8.90 for operations with more than 5,000 hogs and pigs.



U.S. hog producers intend to have 2.88 million sows farrow during the September-November 2001 quarter, 1 percent above the actual farrowings during the same period in 2000, and 1 percent above 1999. Intended farrowings for December 2001-February 2002, at 2.84 million sows, are 3 percent above the same period in 2001, and up1 percent from 2000.

The total number of hogs under contract, owned by operations with over 5,000 head, but raised by contractees, accounted for 35 percent of the total U.S. hog inventory, up from 33 percent last year.

Revisions

All inventory and pig crop estimates for September 2000 through June 2001 were reviewed using final pig crop, official slaughter, death loss, import, and export data in U.S. level balance sheets. Based on the findings of this review, adjustments of less than two percent were made to the inventory level for March 1, 2001 and June 1, 2001. Adjustments of less than one half percent were made to the September-November 2000 pig crop, slightly over three percent to the December 2000-February 2001 pig crop, and less than two percent to the March-May 2001 pig crop.

WHAT IT ALL MEANS?

What the commentators and industry thinkers read into this data (note most of these articles are also accessible individually in the news section):

October 2001: Review of the U.S Hog Market thePigSite.com
KSU: Our Monthly look at the trends in US Hog Market and what effect thes may have on future prices; Inventory Estimates Surprise Trade, Third Quarter 2001 Slaughter Smaller Than Expected, Smaller Slaughter Forecast For Early 2002, Spring 2002 Slaughter Larger Than In 2001, Hog Imports From Canada Increase. - Written by James Mintert, Kansas State University.

Hogs and Pigs Report was good news for hog producers. thePigSite.com
COLUMBIA, Mo. - Both the breeding herd and the market hog inventory on September 1 were 1% smaller than a year ago. This matched our forecast and was 1% below the average of pre-release trade estimates.

Expansion Plans Key to Future Hog Prices thePigSite.com
URBANA, ILL – Moderation in expansion plans remains the key for hog producers seeking to maintain profitable prices in the longer run, said a Purdue University Extension marketing specialist.

US Breeding, Hog inventory down slightly thePigSite.com
US Hog and Swine Outlook, 28th September 2001 - Weekly review of the US hog industry, written by Glen Grimes and Ron Plain.

Hog and Pigs Report Termed ‘Slightly Bullish’ AgWeb.com
According to pre-report expectations, all key figures were expected to come in near year-ago levels, but USDA revealed figures below year-ago levels. As a result, traders are terming the report “slightly bullish.”

GRAPH DATA FROM THE REPORT

Reliability of September 1 Hogs and Pigs Estimates

Survey Procedures: A random sample of 13,000 U.S. producers was surveyed to provide data for these estimates. Survey procedures ensured that all hog and pig producers, regardless of size, had a chance to be included in the survey. Large producers were sampled more heavily than small operations. Data were collected from about 10,900 operations, 84 percent of the total sample, during the first-half of September by mail, telephone, and face-to-face personal interviews. Regardless of when operations responded, they were asked to report inventories as of September 1.

Estimation Procedures: These hogs and pigs estimates were prepared by the Agricultural Statistics Board after reviewing recommendations and analysis submitted by each State office. National and State survey data were reviewed for reasonableness with each other and with estimates from past years using a balance sheet. The balance sheet begins with the previous inventory estimate, adds to it estimates of births and imports, and subtracts estimates of slaughter, exports, and deaths. This indicated ending inventory level is compared to the Agricultural Statistics Board estimate for reasonableness.

Revision Policy: Revisions to previous estimates are made to improve quarter to quarter relationships. Estimates for the previous four quarters are subject to revision when current estimates are made. In December, estimates for all quarters of the current and previous year are reviewed. The reviews are primarily based on hog check-off receipts and slaughter. Estimates will also be reviewed after data from the Department of Agriculture five-year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions will be made after that date.

Reliability: Since all operations raising hogs are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplication, and mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The affects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness.

To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items in the following table. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is computed using the difference between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for hog inventory estimates over the past 20 quarters is 1.1 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current estimate of 58.6 million head by more than 1.1 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 that the difference will not exceed 2.0 percent.

Source: September 2001 Monthly Hogs and Pigs Report - USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service