ShapeShapeauthorShapechevroncrossShapeShapeShapeGrouphamburgerhomeGroupmagnifyShapeShapeShaperssShape

Weekly Roberts Market Report

by 5m Editor
12 May 2011, at 7:58am

US - Cash hogs were steady-to-firm supported by seasonal demand and cheaper-than-beef protein. Packers are ramping up production ahead of Memorial Day.

LEAN HOGS on the CME finished mixed on Monday. The JUNE’11LH contract closed at $97.725/cwt; off $0.625/cwt but $2.250/cwt higher than a week ago. AUG’11LH futures closed at $94.275/cwt; up $0.325/cwt but $3.300/cwt lower than last report. Front months lacked support as funds rolled positions to deferreds. Cash hogs were steady-to-firm supported by seasonal demand and cheaper-than-beef protein. Packers are ramping up production ahead of Memorial Day. USDA put the pork cutout at $90.44/cwt. According to HedgersEdge.com, the average packer margin was raised $2.00/head to a negative $0.90/head based on the average buy of $65.38/cwt vs. the average breakeven of $65.05/cwt. The latest CME lean hog index was placed at $92.18; down $0.24 and $2.02 lower than last report.

CORN futures on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) closed up on Monday. The MAY’11 contract closed at $7.044/bu; down 21.75¢/bu but 26.25¢/bu lower than last Monday. The DEC’11 contract closed at $6.574/bu; up 17.25¢/bu but 3.75¢/bu lower than last report. Corn was supported by the slow planting rate and gains in outside crude oil and metal’s markets. Traders expected a better seeding rate. USDA late Monday put US corn-planting progress at 40 per cent vs. the 59 per cent five-year average and 80 per cent this time last year. Some drier weather is forecast for the corn growing states. Funds made profits in crude and metals so they ended up putting money into commodities, especially corn since the fundamentals show bullish opportunities. Even though funds took profits last week on corn futures there are still net-long 272,860 contracts. Cash corn was down due to high water levels on the Mississippi halting all barge traffic and slow farmer selling. Exports were disappointing with USDA putting corn-inspected-for-export at 27.777 mi bu vs. expectations for 29-32 mi bu. Fundamentally corn is still bullish. It would be a good idea to advance any sales you can afford to at this time.

SOYBEAN futures on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) finished up on Monday. The MAY’11 contract closed at $13.350/bu; up 10.0¢/bu but 055.25¢/bu lower than last Monday. NOV’11 soybean futures closed11.0¢/bu higher than last Friday’s close at $13.194/bu but 54.25¢/bu lower than last report. Outside markets were supportive encouraging funds to infuse cash into soybean commodities. Funds were net buyers of 3,000 lots. They were back in the game after taking profits last week and needing to put gains in crude and metals somewhere. Volume was light and the lowest since November 26. Soybeans struggled to keep pace with gains in corn and wheat amid the light volume. Cash soybeans were steady-to-firm amid slow farmer selling and slow-to-no barge movement. USDA put soybeans planted at 7 per cent vs. the 17 per cent five-year average and 28 per cent planted this time last year. Soybean prices in Rosario, Buenos Aires, SA were firm and rising on slow farmer sales. Exports were bearish with USDA putting soybeans-inspected-for-export at 6.018 mi bu vs. expectations for 9-12 mi bu. Fundamentally soybeans remain bullish but volatile. Some crop sales should be considered at this time.

WHEAT futures in Chicago (CBOT) closed higher on Monday. The MAY’11 wheat contract closed at $7.592/bu; up 34.75¢/bu but 0.5¢/bu lower than last report. JULY’11 futures finished up 31.0¢/bu at $7.904/bu but 1.25¢/bu lower than last week. Fund buying, adverse weather, and lower wheat production numbers were supportive. Funds bought 4,000 lots. Weather has been very dry on the crop in some places and really wet in others. Heavy rains are slowing spring plantings while in Kansas, the top US bread-wheat producer registered temperatures over 100 this past weekend. US wheat production was put at 2.037 bi bu this year, down 19 mi bu from last year. Trading volume was light noting less than 100,000 trades taking place vs. the 30-day average of 110,605. Fund money was supportive, just like corn and soybean futures. Weather continues to drive volatility while fundamentally global stocks are not that bullish. USDA put wheat-inspected-for-export at 34.625 mi bu vs. expectations for 30-35 mi bu. It would be a good idea to advance crop sales at this time.