Weekly Overview: Which Way Are Pig Feed Ingredient Prices Heading?

GLOBAL - An early report on global grain and oilseed supplies for the coming season offer little prospect of a significant fall in feed ingredient prices for pig farmers. Overall grain harvest is forecast to be lower than last year and the oilseed market is expected to remain tight. Porcine Epidemic Diarrhoea has been blamed for a quarterly loss reported by a Canadian food processing company and France has cited the biosecurity risks as the reason for imposing a ban on imports of live pigs and other pig products from the US and other PED-affected countries.
calendar icon 6 May 2014
clock icon 3 minute read

A new report from the International Grains Council expects total world grains output to decline slightly in 2014/15 from the record level forecast for the current season. They are then forecast to rise by an average of 1.6 per cent per year over the remainder of the five-year period, exceeding two billion tons by 2016/17.

While some area expansion is anticipated, the increase is largely driven by improving productivity. Firm demand growth is also expected and, while the absolute level of stocks is likely to rise, the ratio of stocks to use is projected to fall slightly to 18 per cent by the end of the 2018/19, from 20 per cent forecast for 2013/14.

Soybean and rapeseed/canola production growth is expected to out-pace grains, related to strong demand from the crushing industry. Combined annual output growth is projected at an average of 2.1 per cent in the medium term.

Oilseed stocks should recover but the market is likely to remain relatively tight with the stock-to-use ratio is seen rising only slightly.

In the United States, industry analyst, Steve Meyer, says that despite the severe winter and devastation brought by Porcine Epidemic Diarrhoea (PED), the pork market is looking promising.

The most recent report on PED in the US gives 6,226 as the number of farms (termed 'laboratory biological accessions' in the official report) that have tested positive for the PED virus, with 30 states affected.

Citing fears of PED entry across its borders, France is the first country in Europe to ban imports of live pigs, pig semen and porcine by-products from the US. An earlier attempt to achieve an EU-wide ban on these products was rejected by the European Commission.

In Canada, recent PED-positive environmental samples have heightened pig producers awareness of the virus. One of the country's leading meat processing companies, Maple Leaf Foods, is blaming its quarterly losses on PED in North America.

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