The USDA Agricultural Research Service post in China has revised its forecast up for swine imports in 2024 to 7,000 head, but imports will still moderately decline from 2023, according to a recent US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Global Agricultural Information Network (GAIN) report. China imports breeding swine to improve domestic herd genetics. Imported live swine only account for around 0.001% of the total swine population. Most swine producers continue to be under financial pressure, making it difficult to invest in herd improvements.

Additionally, despite the falling sow and swine inventory, current sow levels are above the Peoples Republic of China’s official targets. Industry contacts also believe current sow levels are sufficient. The main suppliers of live swine to China are the United States, Denmark, and France as they have different competitive advantages on litter size, body shape, lean meat rate, growth rate, and disease resistance. 

According to industry sources, swine from Denmark have the highest number of pigs per litter but lower piglets weaned per sow per year. Swine from the United States generally have larger body sizes, swine from Canada have good litter sizes, and swine from France have a good balance of growth rate and disease resistance.

Post revised swine imports up in 2023 to 8,000 head compared to 5,000 head in 2022 according to data from Trade Data Monitor. The surge in swine imports in 2020 and 2021 were from large swine producers rebuilding their herds following the outbreak of African swine fever (ASF). Imports dropped significantly in 2022 once herds returned to pre-ASF levels but returned to 2018 levels in 2023 as larger producers, the main importers of live swine, gained more market share and pushed out smaller producers.