Pig outlook: Lean hog futures bulls hanging tough
Livestock analyst Jim Wyckoff reports on global pig news
23 May 2025
3 minute read
By: Lean hog futures trading has been choppy and sideways recently, but the bulls still hold the slight overall near-term technical advantage amid persistent strength in cash hog and pork market fundamentals. The latest CME lean hog index is up another 49 cents to $92.34 as of May 20, marking the largest daily gain in the last week and a half. China’s return to the US pork market, noted in today’s export sales report, is also bullish.
Weekly USDA US pork export sales
Pork: Net US sales of 37,400 MT for 2025 were up 52 percent from the previous week and 68 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were primarily for Mexico (14,400 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), China (7,800 MT), Japan (3,300 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), South Korea (3,300 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), and Colombia (2,100 MT, including decreases of 100 MT). Exports of 28,500 MT were up 8 percent from the previous week and 9 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Mexico (12,800 MT), Japan (4,400 MT), South Korea (3,400 MT), Colombia (1,800 MT), and Canada (1,600 MT).
Brazil’s meat industry seeks expanded cold storage at ports amid HPAI crisis
Industry response to export disruptions and cargo rejections
Brazil’s meat lobby group, ABPA — representing major global food processors such as JBS SA and BRF SA — has formally requested government authorization to increase cold storage capacity at the country’s ports. This move comes in direct response to significant trade disruptions following Brazil’s first confirmed outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in a commercial poultry facility in Rio Grande do Sul.
China’s pork imports slow in April
China imported 80,000 MT of pork in April, down 11.1% from March and 7.1% less than year-ago. Through the first four months of this year, China imported 360,000 MT of pork, up 3.8% from the same period last year.
USDA finalizes livestock relief rule
USDA sent its final rule on the Emergency Livestock Relief Program 2023/2024 (ELRP 2023/2024) to the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) for review, signaling the agency is getting closer to putting the relief effort in motion. ELRP 2023/2024 will be used to disburse the $2 billion in disaster aid earmarked for livestock producers via legislation approved by Congress Dec. 21 for a total of nearly $21 billion in disaster aid. USDA said earlier this month that affected farmers eligible to receive livestock relief for drought and wildfire in 2023 and 2024 “can expect to receive payments as soon as the end of this month.”
The next week’s likely high-low price trading ranges:
June lean hog futures--$96.675 to $101.975 and with a sideways-higher bias
July soybean meal futures--$289.70 to $308.10, and with a sideways-higher bias
July corn futures--$4.50 to $4.80 and a sideways-higher bias
Latest analytical daily charts lean hog, soybean meal and corn futures
