12 September 2025

5 minute read

By: Jim Wyckoff

North America

Asia

October lean hog futures Wednesday hit a contract high. Technical buying has been featured amid the solidly bullish near-term chart posture for October hogs. There are also some ideas that consumers may be more reluctant to buy beef at the meat counter this fall, following some recent downbeat U.S. economic data. The latest CME lean hog index is down 4 cents to $105.87 as of Sept. 6. Today’s projected cash hog index is up 6 cents to $105.93. Wednesday’s national direct 5-day rolling average cash hog price quote was $106.55.

Latest USDA and other news regarding the global pork industry

China wants hog producers to cut production

China’s government has summoned its biggest hog producers to discuss measures to cut pork production, in its latest move to tackle oversupply and bolster pork prices, reports Bloomberg. Some 25 farming operations have been asked to gather in Beijing on Sept. 16 to share their plans on output control and highlight measures taken so far, according to a notice issued to the firms by China’s agriculture ministry and viewed by Bloomberg. 

Attendees must submit details of their targets for cutting sow numbers by January and their production plans for the year ahead, the ministry’s animal husbandry bureau said. The meeting, first reported by local media, will include the government’s top economic planning agency, the National Development and Reform Commission. China, the world’s largest pork producer, has urged farmers to cut the nation’s breeding herd this year, to deal with a supply glut and deflationary pressures in the economy. Wholesale prices of pork have dropped almost 25% the past year as consumption has weakened due to China’s economic slowdown.

USDA on track for Emergency Livestock Relief Program (ELRP) Rollout

OMB clears final rule as agency prepares flood and wildfire aid; ECAP update

USDA is moving forward with its plan to announce the ELRP for flooding and wildfire losses on non-federal lands during the week of Sept. 8. The agency is on pace to meet that timeline after the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) completed its review of the final rule earlier this month.

The program will aid producers facing losses from higher supplemental feed costs caused by flooding and by wildfires occurring on non-federally managed lands in 2023 or 2024. USDA sent the plan to OMB on Sept. 3 for clearance.

USDA has already distributed significant support through ELRP, paying out $705.1 million for the 2023 program year and $338.2 million for 2024.

Meanwhile, payments under the Emergency Commodity Assistance Program (ECAP) continue to edge higher. USDA has now disbursed $8.03 billion across 560,657 approved applications.

USDA’s China Livestock and Products Annual

USDA forecasts stable pork production in 2026 and reduced pork imports due to abundant domestic supplies. Post anticipates lower beef production and slightly higher imports to meet demand in price-sensitive segments. Retaliatory tariffs and unresolved facility registration issues continue to limit U.S. meat access to the Chinese market.

China slaps preliminary tariffs on EU pork

Beijing imposes duties up to 62.4% in retaliation for EU’s EV tariffs

China’s Ministry of Commerce on Friday announced preliminary anti-dumping duties of up to 62.4% on more than $2 billion worth of pork imports from the European Union. The move, which takes effect Sept. 10, follows an investigation that found EU producers were dumping pork products at prices harmful to China’s domestic industry.

Spanish, Danish, and Dutch firms cooperating with the probe face duties of 15.6% to 32.7%, while all other exporters will be hit with the maximum 62.4%. Analysts view the tariffs as retaliation for the EU’s levies on Chinese electric vehicles, further straining trade ties. Much of the EU’s pork exports to China are offal products like pig ears and feet, which have limited alternative markets.

China is the world’s largest pork consumer. Some 700 million hogs – more than half the world’s annual output – are eaten each year by the country’s 1.4 billion people.

The European Union is China’s biggest source of imported pork, accounting for more than half the overseas supply shipped between 2020 and 2023, according to the China Animal Agriculture Association. Spanish companies led the charge, sending over 280,000 tonnes of pork and derivative products during the first half of 2025 according to EU data, with those from the Netherlands and Denmark behind by a wide margin.

The decision is preliminary and could change before the investigation concludes in December, but experts say hopes for a negotiated solution are dimming.

Global food prices remain elevated

The United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) Food Price Index was at 130.1 in August, the highest since February 2023 and little changed from 130 in July. 

• Vegetable oil prices went up 1.4% to the highest level since June 2022, driven by quotations for palm, sunflower and rapeseed oils, which more than offset a slight decline in soyoil values. 
• Meat costs increased 0.6% to reach a new record high, driven by continuing higher bovine and ovine meat prices, which outweighed stable pig meat prices and lower poultry meat prices. 
• Sugar prices edged up 0.2%, mostly driven by concerns over Brazil’s production outlook, amid reduced sugarcane yields and low sugar recovery rates in key southern growing regions. 
• Conversely, dairy prices fell 1.3%, reflecting lower international prices for butter, cheese, and whole milk powder. 
• Cereals cost fell 0.8% to the lowest since September 2020. 
• Wheat prices declined amid ample global supplies and subdued import demand, especially from major buyers in Asia and North Africa.

The next week’s likely high-low price trading ranges:

October lean hog futures--$93.75 to $100.00 and with a sideways bias

December soybean meal futures--$281.40 to $295.00, and with a sideways bias

December corn futures--$4.10 to $4.30 and a sideways-higher bias

Latest analytical daily charts lean hog, soybean meal and corn futures