19 September 2025

3 minute read

By: Jim Wyckoff

North America

The lean hog futures market at mid-week saw some normal backing and filling on the charts, after hitting a contract high Tuesday. Gains in hog futures have been limited by the sell-off in the cattle futures late this week. The near-term technical posture for October hogs remains firmly bullish, which is keeping sellers scarce at present. The latest CME lean hog index is down 14 cents at $106.00. Today’s projected cash hog index is down another 14 cents at $105.86. Wednesday’s national direct 5-day rolling average cash hog price quote was $105.99.

Latest USDA and other news regarding the global pork industry

Weekly US pork export sales

Net US pork sales of 22,000 MT for 2025 were up 27 percent from the previous week, but down 14 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were primarily for Japan (6,600 MT, including decreases of 200 MT), Mexico (6,200 MT, including decreases of 500 MT), China (3,000 MT), Colombia (1,400 MT, including decreases of 300 MT), and Canada (1,300 MT, including decreases of 300 MT). Exports of 29,400 MT were up 26 percent from the previous week and 13 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Mexico (14,500 MT), Japan (4,100 MT), China (2,800 MT), South Korea (1,900 MT), and Canada (1,700 MT).

American farmers are feeling the pain of U.S. trade policies

U.S. agricultural communities that once saw Donald Trump as a reliable champion are increasingly feeling the sting of his aggressive trade policies. Farmers, who overwhelmingly supported Trump in past elections, are now caught in the crossfire of escalating tariff battles that have revived painful memories of the first trade war with China earlier in his presidency.

Producers of soybeans, corn, pork, and dairy have been hit particularly hard as foreign buyers, notably in China and the European Union, scale back purchases or impose retaliatory tariffs. While Trump argues that the tariffs are essential to protect U.S. manufacturing and reduce dependence on adversarial nations, the immediate result for farmers has been falling export demand, rising input costs, and thinning margins. “We backed him because we thought he understood rural America,” said an Iowa soybean grower. “But now we’re on the front lines again — and it’s killing our markets.”

Mounting economic pressure in farm country. Commodity prices have softened even as production costs remain high, leaving many producers struggling to break even. Farm groups warn that the financial stress could force more operations to rely on emergency credit or government aid, repeating the bailout cycles of the last trade war.

Rural banks are also sounding alarms about deteriorating farm balance sheets, especially as rising interest rates over recent years have made refinancing harder. Young farmers and smaller operations are particularly vulnerable, with many reporting they are delaying equipment purchases or cutting back on hired labor.

Political risk on the horizon. If the trade tensions persist into the 2026 election cycle, they could upend traditional political loyalties in farm country. Farmers who once viewed Trump as their strongest advocate are increasingly questioning whether his tariff-centric strategy is worth the price.

Several agricultural organizations have quietly urged the administration to pursue negotiated market access agreements instead of relying on punitive tariffs. Whether those concerns gain traction in Washington — or translate into political fallout — may hinge on how quickly the trade war’s economic damage spreads beyond the farm gate into rural communities at large.

The next week’s likely high-low price trading ranges:

October lean hog futures--$96.00 to $100.00 and with a sideways bias

December soybean meal futures--$281.40 to $290.00, and with a sideways bias

December corn futures--$4.15 to $4.35 and a sideways-higher bias

Latest analytical daily charts lean hog, soybean meal and corn futures