Leman: Trade, tariffs and global competition impacting the future of US pork production

14 January 2026

4 minute read

By: Lee Williamson

North America

Bill Moore, the Chief Risk Officer at Compeer Financial was recently interviewed by Sarah Mikesell in St. Paul, Minnesota, USA, at the Leman Swine Conference.

What are some key insights you’ve shared regarding pork production currently? 

I am not a swine industry specialist, but I linked where the economy for agriculture is to the US economy. We're at a spot where agricultural exports are super important to not only this industry but to agriculture. We have a large trade deficit because we feed the world. The things that go on in Washington impact trade, which impacts this industry. It's important for the industry to understand those things. 

How are tariffs and trade currently impacting the industry? 

There's been a lot of disruption, or at least perceived disruption in the US economy from a change in tactics that hasn’t been used in 20 or 30 years. This includes the use of tariffs to control trade. There are positives to those approaches, but there are also cons to those approaches. Understand that tariffs don't do X or Y, they're really something in the middle because they're far more nuanced. 

For us, global trade for the pork industry represents about 26% of what we produce. So being able to get that product into the world is not only important to our industry, but to individual farmers' profitability. 

From a global perspective, you said Brazil is taking over dominance in world trade?

Brazil is  ramping up on their world exports in the grain segment. China invested a lot of dollars in what's simply called the Silk Road. Brazil used to be likely the lowest cost provider on the farm, but then to get it off the farm costs are considerably more than the infrastructure that we have. 

China has tried to level that playing field with lots of money invested. They have better roads, rails, and ports now than they had even just 10 years ago. As a result, they have really taken over most global exports of corn, and particularly to us, soybeans. The US has fallen behind in their ability to be able to feed that world, which is what we're good at. The same thing could be occurring on the protein side. Brazil's now on their second step of how they invest in and create a swine product that they too can feed the world. It's going to be a difficult competition going forward. 

Will the United States need to combine or join with other countries in their agriculture efforts? 

I don't think the way to win is to be able to pick off where Brazil sells its products. Brazil is a part of BRIC, which stands for Brazil, Russia, India and China. South Africa is in that mix as well, but they're a true global operating consortium of which is trying to develop a closed end loop to feed themselves. The United States needs to be able to do the same to maintain its level of competitiveness across the world whether that's combining with Europe, Japan or other parts of Southeast Asia. We could even get India on board. That's a possibility as well, but we need to focus on demand for our products, not just the production of them. 

What is your message to the US pork industry? 

They're in a surprisingly good spot today after 18 months of very weak results. We probably have the highest margin contribution in maybe 10 years when you consider the cost of their inputs and the value that they're getting on the cutout. Interest rates are a tremendous factor in not only agriculture but in pork production. It's a very asset-intensive business that requires capital investment and usually financing. The Federal Reserve controls short-term interest rates. They'd like to see maybe another interest rate cut in the next 2 months and then maybe a few more in the next year. 

The counterpart to that is it means the economy is probably slowing. You must be able to balance that as well. Now, for us, the good news is the ag industry, and the U.S. economy don't work in tandem. Many times, they often work in counterbalance. While we hopefully can maintain 50 pounds of domestic consumption. Whatever we consume and submit to the world, we also need to be able to make sure the profit and loss statement, AKA the bottom line, is managed the right way. 

Is agriculture the “tip of the spear” for the US economy?

That's true. You can look at it in practice. In 2018, the first trade war with China, there were a lot of good things that came out of those trade agreements. But to get there, agriculture had to be the tip of that spear. In turn, the government recognized that and compensated farmers on their behalf. There is an expectation that we will see that again. It's not nearly as well defined today as it probably could be in a couple of months. 

In August 2025 alone, the government took in $30 billion from tariff revenues. That really started to ramp up in April. You've had April, May, June, July and August, five months. Scott Bessent, the Treasury Secretary, thinks the government could generate $300 million a year of revenue from just tariffs. The US Secretary of Agriculture, Brooke Rollins, spoke recently and said, “Maybe we can divert some of those funds to the US farmer.” Since we're the tip of the spear, maybe we can get compensated for that. There'll be legal challenges to that. It won't come easily. I do think this administration is committed to making sure that our farmers are safe because food is such a national security issue for us.