World Pork Trade Overview - October 2009

By USDA Foreign Agricultural Service - This article provides a forecast for 2010, in which an economic recovery is expected to bolster world meat trade.

27 October 2009

4 minute read

2010 Forecast: Economic Recovery Bolsters World Meat Trade

Economic recovery in 2010 will help stimulate improved demand for meat and poultry.

Beef and pork exports are forecast up one and three per cent, respectively. Whereas improved demand for beef is expected worldwide, the boost in pork will generally be concentrated in North America. Brazil, the only key beef producer with excess supplies, is expected as the principal beneficiary of increased demand. However, both Brazil and the United States will be able to take advantage of the rise in pork.

Broiler and turkey meat exports are forecast two and four per cent higher, respectively. Brazil will be the primary supplier as it focuses on growth to non-traditional markets. The United States faces a decline in broiler shipments on weak demand in major markets but modest growth is expected for turkey.

Pork: 2010 Forecast Overview

Global pork production forecast up two per cent to 101.9 million tons

China is the driving force behind global production growth in 2010. Excluding China, production is fractionally lower, as contraction in the United States, Canada and the EU slightly offsets gains in Brazil, Russia and the Ukraine.

China: Production is again forecast higher, up four per cent to 50.3 million tons. Expansion is fueled by government sow subsidies and improved animal disease control notably for Porcine Reproductive and Respiratory Syndrome (PRRS).

United States: Higher feed prices and relatively weak hog prices over the past two years results in a forecast of slightly lower production (two per cent) as producers reduce herds.

Canada: Production is forecast to fall to the lowest level for nine years, plunging seven per cent to 1.7 million tons. A shrinking swine herd, as the industry faces a third consecutive year of low returns, will translate to lower pork production.

Brazil: Production is forecast up four per cent, bolstered by strong domestic demand, with pork prices competitive with beef, and growth in the export market.

Russia: Moderate growth is expected as government subsidies continue to stimulate investments in the pork industry. Producers are supported by more efficient operations, better swine genetics, and expected lower feed prices. Production is forecast four per cent higher at nearly 2.3 million tons.

Exports: Up slightly, resuming longer term growth trend

Exports, primarily from the United States and Brazil, are forecast up three per cent to 5.6 million tons as exporters are optimistic about growth in the world economy in 2010 and expect demand from major markets to strengthen.

United States: Moderate gains are expected as US shipments to major markets are expected to strengthen with improved economic conditions, a weaker dollar and competitive prices. Reliance on export markets rises slightly as 20 per cent of US production is exported.

Brazil: Growth is expected to new markets, while demand remains from traditional markets.

EU-27 and Canada: Exports are forecast down four and three per cent, respectively, as lower production reduces exportable supplies.

Imports: Slight recovery due to North American growth

North American imports are forecast to increase more rapidly than most other major importing regions as global imports rise two per cent to 5.4 million tons.

Canada: Imports are forecast to jump 18 per cent due to a stronger Canadian dollar and firm demand for high quality fresh cuts at a time when domestic pork production continues to decline.

Mexico: Imports forecast up three per cent as demand remains firm.

United States: Imports forecast up five per cent on tight supplies expected due to lower domestic production and greater exports.

South Korea: A stronger economy and Korean won are forecast to bolster imports up, seven per cent.

Ukraine: A currency devaluation and continued economic weakness are expected adversely affect imports, forecast 17 per cent lower.

China: Imports, which account for a negligible amount of consumption, are expected to fall 20 per cent to 120,000 tons, as abundant local supplies dampen import demand.