Pig outlook: Lean hog futures see technical buying interest

Livestock analyst Jim Wyckoff reports on global pig news

29 August 2025

4 minute read

By: Jim Wyckoff

North America

October lean hogs Wednesday rose 90 cents to $94.325 and hit a two-month high. The lean hog futures market is surging this week on technical buying from the chart-based speculators and due to the soaring live and feeder cattle futures markets that are at record highs. Still, cash hog and pork market fundamentals have weakened a bit this week. The latest CME lean hog index is down another 41 cents to $106.86 as of Aug. 25. Thursday’s CME cash index is projected down another 23 cents to $106.63. The national direct five-day rolling average cash hog price quote today is $108.40.

Latest USDA and other news regarding the global pork industry

Weekly US pork export sales

Pork: Net sales of 42,400 MT for 2025 were up noticeably from the previous week and up 53 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases primarily for Mexico (26,700 MT, including decreases of 400 MT), Colombia (3,400 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), Japan (2,500 MT, including decreases of 200 MT), the Dominican Republic (1,400 MT), and Guatemala (1,400 MT), were offset by reductions for Cuba (100 MT). Exports of 25,600 MT were down 10 percent from the previous week and 7 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Mexico (12,600 MT), Japan (2,900 MT), South Korea (2,400 MT), China (2,300 MT), and Canada (1,000 MT).

USDA Sees Moderate Food Inflation in 2025, Slower Pace Expected in 2026

Grocery prices lag behind restaurants as beef and eggs drive sharp increases; wholesale markets signal further volatility

Consumer Price Index (CPI) report shows food prices rising largely in step with overall inflation. From June to July 2025, the all-food CPI rose 0.2%, the same pace as economy-wide inflation, and stood 2.9% higher than a year earlier.

Grocery vs. Restaurants

The divergence between at-home and away-from-home food costs persists:

Food-at-home (groceries): +0.1% in July, +2.2% year-on-year.
Food-away-from-home (restaurants): +0.3% in July, +3.9% year-on-year.

This split continues a decade-long trend in which restaurant meals climb faster than grocery prices, reflecting higher labor and service costs.

USDA August Forecast for 2025

USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) projects food price growth this year to remain near historical averages:

All food: +2.9% (prediction interval: 2.3–3.4%)
Food-at-home: +2.2% (1.4–3.0%)
Food-away-from-home: +3.9% (3.5–4.2%)

Within categories, volatility is sharp:

Eggs: +24.4% forecast, reflecting lingering fallout from Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI).
Beef & Veal: +9.9% as cattle herds shrink but demand stays strong.
Fresh Vegetables: –0.8% after 2024’s weather-driven spikes.
Pork: +1.6%, Poultry: +2.5%.
Sugar & Sweets: +4.7%, Nonalcoholic Beverages: +3.6%, tied to higher global coffee and citrus costs.

2026 Outlook: Slower Growth, Wider Uncertainty

In 2026, food inflation is expected to ease further:

All food: +2.2% (–2.9 to +7.5%)
Food-at-home: +1.2% (–6.3 to +9.2%)
Food-away-from-home: +3.3% (0.5–6.1%)

The wide ranges underscore risks from energy prices, trade policy, weather shocks, and disease outbreaks.

Producer Price Index (PPI) Outlook: Wholesale Signals Ahead

While CPI reflects consumer prices, the PPI tracks farm- and wholesale-level prices that often foreshadow retail movements. USDA does not formally forecast PPIs but highlights expected trends in 2025:

Cattle & Beef: Farm-level cattle prices predicted to surge 21.4%, with wholesale beef up 10.5%. Herd contraction and tight supply remain key drivers.
Eggs: Farm-level prices forecast to rise a volatile 46.1%, though recent declines in HPAI cases could temper pressures.
Milk: +1.8% expected, with modest gains despite increased production.
Fruits: –1.8% forecast, while vegetables show a sharper –11.4% decline after this year’s weather-driven spikes.
Wheat: –9.3% predicted, continuing post-Ukraine war declines but at a slower pace.

Because PPIs are more volatile and closer to production shocks, they often serve as leading indicators for consumer-level CPI. Current forecasts suggest continued upward pressure on beef and eggs, while relief may come from vegetables, fruits, and wheat.

Historical Context

Food inflation surged nearly 10% in 2022, the fastest since 1979, fueled by avian flu, the Russia-Ukraine war, and high energy costs. Prices slowed to 5.8% in 2023 and 2.3% in 2024 as supply chains healed and inflationary pressures cooled. The 2025 outlook points to a return to more typical growth, but sharp divergences across categories highlight the uneven recovery.