Pig outlook: Bears may finally be exhausted

Analyst Jim Wyckoff provides an update on the CME lean hog futures and global pork news
calendar icon 10 December 2021
clock icon 4 minute read

After recent strong selling pressure the lean hog futures bears may have run out of gas. Price gains to end this week would confirm such and also suggest a market bottom is in place. The pork cutout value on Wednesday gained an impressive $9.35, boosted by a $29.58 rise in hams. Also impressive is packers moved 412.90 loads of product at the sharply higher prices Wednesday. The cash hog and pork product markets are signaling lows may be in place. US hog supplies typically peak in mid-December, then begin a seasonal decline into early summer.

Latest USDA and other news regarding the global pork industry

US pork sales slide in latest reporting week

USDA Thursday reported US pork net sales of 19,800 MT for 2021 were down 52 percent from the previous week and 26 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases primarily for Mexico (11,700 MT, including decreases of 600 MT), Japan (3,700 MT, including decreases of 400 MT), South Korea (1,400 MT, including decreases of 200 MT), the Dominican Republic (700 MT, including decreases of 400 MT), and Colombia (500 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), were offset by reductions for Australia (200 MT), China (100 MT), and Peru (100 MT). Net sales of 700 MT for 2022 primarily for Colombia (400 MT), Japan (300 MT), Australia (200 MT), and South Korea (100 MT), were offset by reductions for Canada (300 MT). Exports of 33,500 MT were down 8 percent from the previous week, but up 2 percent from the prior 4- week average.t The destinations were primarily to Mexico (17,000 MT), Japan (5,000 MT), China (3,600 MT), South Korea (2,900 MT), and Colombia (1,500 MT).

China’s meat imports down

China brought in 677,000 metric tons (MT) of meat last month, up 2% from October but down 12.6% from last year. Cheaper domestic pork prices amid a surge in production cut demand for overseas supplies. Through the first 11 months of this year, China imported 8.7 million MT of meat, down 2.5% from the same period last year.

Michigan firm recalls over 230,000 pounds of pork

Alexander & Hornung, a St. Clare Shores, Michigan company that is a unit of Perdue Premium Meat Company, is recalling approximately 234,391 pounds of fully cooked ham and pepperoni products that may be contaminated with Listeria monocytogenes, according to USDA’s Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS). The products were produced on various dates and bear establishment number “EST. M10125” inside the USDA mark of inspection. These items were shipped to retail locations nationwide. The company notified FSIS that product sampling reported positive Listeria monocytogenes results, FSIS said, but there have been no confirmed reports of adverse reactions due to consumption of these products.

The next week’s likely high-low price trading ranges:

February lean hog futures--$74.05 to $82.70 and with a higher bias

March soybean meal futures--$345.00 to $365.00, and with a sideways-higher bias

March corn futures--$5.75 to $.600 and a sideways bias

Latest analytical daily charts lean hog, soybean meal and corn futures

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