Pig outlook - Lean hog bulls need to show fresh power soon, ASF in Hong Kong

Livestock analyst Jim Wyckoff shares pig news from around the world
calendar icon 17 November 2023
clock icon 3 minute read

February lean hog futures bulls are fading late this week and need to show fresh power soon to keep alive a price uptrend on the daily bar chart. The hog market bulls point out that there is a bullish symmetrical triangle pattern that has formed on the daily bar chart for February futures. Meantime, the latest CME lean hog index is down 7 cents to $76.06 (as of Nov. 14). While the cash index hasn’t faced heavy pressure recently, it has struggled to move above the low-$76.00 range. Hog market bulls can also argue that futures and cash prices have not performed all that badly, given the recent steep price declines in the cattle and beef markets.

Hong Kong to cull 5,600 pigs on a local hog farm after the discovery of African Swine Fever (ASF) 

The authorities plan to clean and disinfect the affected farm, and they will closely monitor other local hog farms to prevent the spread of the disease. The Hong Kong Agriculture, Fisheries and Conservation Department has reassured consumers that there is no need for concern regarding the outbreak, as it will not impact live hog supplies or the functioning of local slaughterhouses. This action is being taken to contain the spread of ASF and safeguard the local pork industry.

Weekly USDA US pork export sales

Pork: US net sales of 24,300 MT for 2023 were down 51 percent from the previous week and 30 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were primarily for Mexico (8,500 MT, including decreases of 300 MT), Japan (5,400 MT, including decreases of 400 MT), South Korea (2,100 MT, including decreases of 1,200 MT), Colombia (1,700 MT, including decreases of 300 MT), and Honduras (1,400 MT). Net sales of 400 MT for 2024 were reported for South Korea (300 MT) and Colombia (100 MT). Exports of 30,900 MT were down 13 percent from the previous week, but up 5 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Mexico (10,500 MT), Japan (4,300 MT), South Korea (3,900 MT), China (3,200 MT), and Colombia (2,400 MT).

Tyson foods reports sales decline in Q4 2023

Tyson Foods Inc. reported a decline in sales for the fourth quarter and fiscal year 2023, with lower chicken and pork prices and reduced demand for beef. The company's operating income loss in Q4 decreased by 160% to $463 million, while sales for the quarter dropped by 2.9% to $13.35 billion. Tyson's beef segment operating income also declined, with a $323 million loss in Q4, despite a 10.2% increase in average beef prices. The company anticipates an adjusted operating income loss between $400 million and breakeven for fiscal 2024 in the beef segment.

US monthly pork exports

US pork exports totaled 512.0 million lbs. in September, down 14.7 million lbs. (2.8%) from August and 4.1 million lbs. (0.8%) less than year-ago. During the first nine months of the year, the US shipped 4.994 billion lbs. of pork, up 331.0 million lbs. (7.1%) from the same period last year.

The next week’s likely high-low price trading ranges:

February lean hog futures--$72.00 to $78.00 and with a sideways-higher bias

March soybean meal futures--$415.00 to $450.00, and with a sideways-higher bias

March corn futures--$4.70 to $5.00 and a sideways bias

Latest analytical daily charts lean hog, soybean meal and corn futures

Sarah Mikesell


Sarah Mikesell grew up on a five-generation family farming operation in Ohio, USA, where her family still farms. She feels extraordinarily lucky to get to do what she loves - write about livestock and crop agriculture. You can find her on Twitter or LinkedIn.

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