February lean hog futures last week hit a four-week low and the bears have the slight near-term technical advantage. However, this week’s price rebound gives the bulls hope that a near-term market bottom is in place. Fundamentally, the CME lean hog index has stabilized recently but is still not far above this year’s low. Given the holiday-shortened slaughter schedules over the next couple of weeks, a seasonal low in the cash index isn’t likely until sometime in early 2023.

China to investigate ‘excessive’ hog price decline

China’s state planner said on Wednesday it called a meeting of hog industry experts to ensure stable prices after recent excessive declines. According to experts the slump was due to a “temporary” period of weak consumption, it said, adding that there is no oversupply.

China’s pork imports rise in November but still below year-ago

China imported 180,000 MT of pork in November, up 20,000 MT (12.5%) from October but 11.1% below year-ago. For the first 11 months of this year, China imported 1.56 MMT of pork, down 56% from the same period last year.

The next week’s likely high-low price trading ranges:

February lean hog futures--$81.525 to $88.00 and with a sideways-higher bias

March soybean meal futures--$443.40 to $469.30, and with a sideways-higher bias

March corn futures--$6.35 to $.6.70 and a sideways bias

Latest analytical daily charts lean hog, soybean meal and corn futures