Pig outlook: Lean hog futures bulls hanging tough

Analyst Jim Wyckoff shares an update on the US futures market, USDA reports and global pig news
calendar icon 5 August 2022
clock icon 2 minute read

The pig traders’ perspective: Lean hogs remain in a near-term price uptrend on the daily bar chart and the bulls have the near-term technical advantage, to suggest sideways-higher price action over the next week. August futures are trading at a premium to the cash index, implying firmness through the end of next week, with pessimistic discounts in the fall and winter contracts. The USDA’s national average hog price for Tuesday surged $5.19 to $121.33, while the CME lean hog index fell 30 cents to $121.57 (as of Aug. 1). Wholesale US prices have eased but remain near a 14-month high.

US pork exports rise in latest week

USDA’s weekly export sales report showed US pork net sales of 31,000 MT for 2022 were up 43 percent from the previous week and 35 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were primarily for China (16,800 MT, including decreases of 300 MT), Mexico (8,600 MT, including decreases of 200 MT), Japan (1,800 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), South Korea (1,700 MT, including decreases of 400 MT), and Canada (600 MT, including decreases of 400 MT). Exports of 26,000 MT were down 4 percent from the previous week and 5 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Mexico (12,600 MT), China (4,200 MT), Japan (3,300 MT), Colombia (1,600 MT), and South Korea (1,400 MT).

US Democrats urge update on alleged market manipulation by big packers

Six US House of Representatives Democrats sent a letter (link) to the DOJ calling on the agency to update Congress on “allegations of market manipulation” by the Big Four packers: Tyson, JBS, Cargill, and National Beef. These four control more than 80% of the market for processed beef.

The next week’s likely high-low price trading ranges:

October lean hog futures--$94.00 to $100.00, and with a sideways-higher bias

September soybean meal futures--$430.00 to $461.30, and with a sideways-higher bias

December corn futures--$5.85 to $6.36 1/2 and a sideways bias

Latest analytical daily charts lean hog, soybean meal and corn futures

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