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Pig outlook: Lean hog futures bulls working on price uptrend

The late-December USDA Hogs & Pigs Report showed the US hog hog herd 4% smaller than year-ago, which was greater contraction than traders expected. Nearly all categories came in on the bullish side of the average pre-report estimates.
calendar icon 31 December 2021
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That should support lean hog futures for at least the near term. Indeed, prospects for the usual early-winter rally seem promising, especially with US wholesale prices firming. Mid-December slaughter fell over 6.0% short of the comparable year-ago figure, reinforcing USDA forecasts for a drop in winter hog supplies. Concerns about reduced export demand, as well as excessively expensive retail prices, are keeping the market from moving significantly higher.

Latest USDA and other news regarding the global pork industry

USDA: China's annual tariff adjustment increases pork to MFN

USDA reports that on December 15, China’s State Council Tariff Commission (SCTC) announced its 2022 annual tariff adjustment plan that sets tentative import and export tariff rates for select tariff lines. According to this year’s plan, China will tentatively lower the tariff rates for multiple wood and fishery products. China also increased the tariff rates for certain pork and orange juice products to or below the established most-favored nation (MFN) rate. The tentative tariff rates are applicable to tariff lines from all exporting countries. This report contains an unofficial translation of the SCTC notice, the list of known agriculture-related tariff lines subject to tentative applied MFN tariff rate changes in 2022, a commodity list subject to TRQ administration, and additional information regarding scheduled RCEP tariff adjustments.

The next week’s likely high-low price trading ranges:

February lean hog futures--$81.00 to $86.00 and with a sideways-higher bias

March soybean meal futures--$380.00 to $415.10, and with a sideways-lower bias

March corn futures--$5.90 to $.617 3/4 and a sideways-lower bias

Latest analytical daily charts lean hog, soybean meal and corn futures